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Joe Nelson - About Me

Although Joe Nelson debuted on Vegas Insider just over a year ago, he has quickly made his mark on the site with strong performance and a great selection of pick packs in football, basketball, and baseball.

With great experience in the handicapping industry as a chief handicapper at a major service in the Midwest, Joe Nelson delivers a consistent, disciplined approach to handicapping with proven results now available all year long to all VegasInsider.com customers.

Holding a statistics background and years of experience working and learning from several well known handicappers Joe Nelson has developed a unique approach that includes traditional methods as well as innovative strategies with regards to team situations and line analysis.

In his brief time featured on Vegas Insider Joe Nelson has already compiled an impressive resume. Member Plays have been especially strong for Joe Nelson with a belief that the V.I.P. customers deserve the best picks, not just free picks or games that are easy to write up.

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NEW BLOG UPDATE

By Joe Nelson
Posted 12/01/2008 at 06:13 PM

Texas Tech Mike Leach suggested that the Big 12 use graduation rates for tie-breakers. Though this would never gain steam in dollars driven NCAA, Leach does have a point. Tech leads the Big 12 with a 79 percent rate while Texas and Oklahoma sat at 50 percent or worse according to the last NCAA report. Numbers like that should only enhance Leach’s top candidacy for big name jobs throughout the country or a solid raise at Texas Tech.

Though it was expected that Oklahoma would overtake Texas in the BCS standings based on a win over Oklahoma State it was odd to see many voters and media figures stating that Oklahoma’s win was so impressive that they deserved to go. Oklahoma State is a good team and beating them in Stillwater is impressive, but allowing 41 points when you are trying to claim deserving of a spot in the national title game is not. Oklahoma won by 20 but the margin was just 3 late in the 4th quarter as neither defense could get stops. Oklahoma’s win over Texas Tech was impressive, but Texas Tech had the most impressive win over Oklahoma State, winning 56-20 while OU and Texas both played close games with the Cowboys. Texas Tech of course needed a comeback win to beat Baylor last week so the Red Raiders were going to have a tough time making a valid case for inclusion in the argument.

Oklahoma has posted incredible offensive numbers but in Big 12 games the Sooners are allowing 30.75 points per game. Numbers like that should have OU fans worried that another big national game loss may be coming, either this week or in January. The SEC has a provision in its tie-breaking procedure that would account for the head-to-head match-up if teams are closely tied in the BCS rankings. If the Big 12 South went by the SEC tie-breaking rules, Texas would be the Big 12 champion, not Oklahoma. There will certainly be talk of exploring revisions to the system next year, but it really was a rare situation.

If the playoffs started today in the NFL several prominent teams would be on the outside, including the Patriots, Cowboys, and Packers, teams that combined to go 42-6 last season. Those three teams still have a decent shot to make the postseason but the same can not be said for the Chargers, Seahawks, and Jaguars, three teams that were projected as strong playoff contenders this season. At the beginning of the year it is had to imagine such vast changes in the league from one year to the next, but every year this continues to happen.

Road teams continue to deliver incredible results this season as last Sunday only two home teams won outright in the 12 games played. Only Minnesota and Tampa Bay were able to win at home and the Vikings, Browns, and Rams were the only home teams to cover on Sunday, although both Dallas and Philadelphia covered on Thursday at home. The explanations are plenty, the argument could be made that there are simply not as many dominant teams so any team can win any game. The many new stadiums also provide a diminished home field edge as they are designed to make money, not win games. The two West divisions are weak this year so traveling west has been easier than usual. Weather is a real factor in coming weeks so the numbers could level out. It will also be interesting to see how home field advantage plays out in the playoffs as the last three Super Bowl champions all got there without a protected top 2 seed.

FULL STORY

NEW BLOG UPDATE

By Joe Nelson
Posted 11/25/2008 at 01:23 PM

Several of the big games with BCS implications were a bit of a letdown in terms of entertainment value. Oklahoma absolutely routed Texas Tech in the top 5 showdown that was over quickly. Coach Mike Leach was in line for a big payday with lucrative offers coming, those may still come but the embarrassing national TV loss is a setback. The debate between Texas and Oklahoma will rage on but both teams face tricky rivalry games this week and the Big 12 title game will not be a cakewalk against Missouri in Kansas City.

FULL STORY

JOE NELSON HEADLINES
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Nelson: Don't Sleep on the Lions
Nelson: Brewers look dangerous
MORE J. NELSON HEADLINES
ACCOLADES AND DOCUMENTED RECORDS
#1 on VI in Member Plays 2007-08 College Basketball
NFL...#3 VI 2007 Regular Season & '08 Playoffs with +1,470 net units
NFL...7-1 mark in 2008 Playoffs
NBA...#1 VI 2008 Playoffs with 65%, +1,320 net units
#1 on VI in Member Plays 2006-07 College Football
#2 on VI in Member Plays 2006 MLB
12-3, 80% in the 2007 NFL Playoffs
15-2, 88 percent MLB run during June 2006
35-10, 78 percent CFB run during the 2006-07 season
PICK RECORD
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Joe Nelson's NFL Picks
Period: 11/02/2008 to 12/02/2008
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 12-10-0 ( 54.5% , +100)
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BLOG ARCHIVES
12/01/2008 at 06:13 PM
Between the Lines 12/1

11/25/2008 at 01:23 PM
Between the Lines 11/24

11/19/2008 at 12:39 PM
Between the Lines 11/17

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