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Play the 'under'

From a viewing standpoint, Arena Football offers plenty of differences from the traditional NFL and college games. However, from a wagering standpoint, there are some significant trends happening in 2005 that can give you a statistical edge when playing totals in the AFL.


Much like the NFL, when teams run the ball consistently in the Arena Football League the games tend to lean towards the under. This of course limits turnovers and decreases the yards per play. This is especially prevalent in the AFL as yards per rush is significantly lower than that of the NFL game. In the AFL, the clocks runs even on an incomplete pass so on the surface this angle may not seem to provide the edge you are looking for, but let’s take a look at some numbers through Week 11.


There are five teams that average right around 10 rush attempts per game so far in 2005 and the record for the under in their games is 19-30-2. These five teams are Dallas, Grand Rapids, Nashville, Orlando, and Chicago.


When these teams meet head-to-head, the numbers are very solid. The under in head-to-head meetings between these five teams is 6-1 (86%). The next match up between two of these teams happens in Week 15 (May 7th) between Grand Rapids and Nashville. In Week 16, Grand Rapids travels to Chicago and in Week 17, Chicago will square off with the Kats in Nashville. Three more chances to put this 86% angle into play and we will certainly continue to analyze game by game this solid trend.


As far as individual teams, Chicago and Nashville tend to play under at a more significant clip overall. In fact, the Chicago Rush has stayed under in each of their last 9 games! Nashville is also a team that has played under at a solid figure, hitting 70% (7-3) on the under in 2005.


Each of these two teams are at home this week against opponents that are not known for their explosive offensive units! Thus, plenty of “stops” should be in store this week. A “stop” here and there will eat the clock significantly and both of the aforementioned teams have shown the ability to both get stops and be stopped! For those that don’t follow the AFL too closely, a made FG or any turnover (downs included) is considered a “stop” in this league. Keep your eyes on these two teams as the situation could present the opportunity for a solid totals selection.


Best of luck from American Sports Analysts!!

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