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Arena Playoff Review
June 27, 2007
By Keith Fredrick
VegasInsider.com
This is the first week of the Arena Football League Playoffs, and just like "the outdoor game," it begins with the Wold Card Round. Interestingly two games are rematches from the final week in the regular season where Orlando traveled to Philadelphia and lost to the Soul while Utah secured a must win victory on the road over an Avenger team that had already clinched a playoff berth. Another item to note is that in the American Conference the Wild Card games are both division match-ups with the visitor having won both regular season games.
Friday June 29th 7:30 pm (#5) Orlando (8-8) at (#4) Philadelphia (8-8)
Head to Head - Only 2007 meeting was last week Soul winning 63-49 which gave them the tiebreaker over Preds and this home playoff game.
Orlando as away dog: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 Over/Under Avg Score 45-59
Philly as home fav: 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 5-2 Over/Under Avg Score 59-50
Team Comparisons:
Offense: Orlando 50.9 ppg (#14) Philadelphia 56.2 ppg (#5)
Defense: Orlando 47.9 ppg (#3) Philadelphia 52.2 ppg (#8)
Player Comparisons:
Quarterbacks: Advantage: Philadelphia
(O) Shane Stafford 64.4% comp 4,294 yds 76-10 ratio 112.8 rating
(P) Toni Graziani 62.2% comp 2,841 yds 64-8 ratio 117.0 rating
Soul 8-4 with Graziani starting, when he was out due to injury Philly was 0-4.
Wide Receivers: Slight Advantage: Orlando
(O) Javarus Dudley 1,524 yds, 33 TD¹s #2 TT Toliver 1,383 yds, 22 TD¹s
(P) Charles Pauley 1,473 yds, 29 TD¹s #2 Larry Brackins 786 yds, 20 TD¹s
Kickers: Even
(O) Jay Taylor 134 pts 101-109 XP 11-21 52% FG¹s
(P) Todd France 132 pts 105-120 XP 9-16 56% FG¹s
Saturday June 30th 12:00 Noon - (#6) Columbus (7-9) at (#3) Tampa Bay (9-7)
Head to Head - Only meeting 4/29/07 in Tampa Storm won 34-32 as a four-point home dog.
Columbus as away dog: 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-2-1 Over/Under Avg Score 47-55
Tampa Bay as home fav: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 Over/Under Avg Score 55-53
Team Comparisons:
Offense: Columbus 50.1 ppg (#16) Tampa Bay 50.6 ppg (#15)
Defense: Columbus 49.6 ppg (#5) Tampa Bay 51.6 ppg (#7)
Player Comparisons:
Quarterbacks: Slight experience edge: Columbus
(C) Matt Nagy 62.6% comp 3557 yds 75-15 ratio 104.4 rating
(T) Brett Deitz 65.9% comp 2395 yds 47-7 ratio 119.3 rating
Deitz took over for an injured John Kaleo and the Storm won 7 of their last 8 games.
Wide Receivers: Advantage: Tampa Bay
(C) Damien Groce 1342 yds, 31 TD¹s #2 David Saunders 550 yds, 18 TD¹s
(T) Terrill Shaw 1411 yds, 24 TD¹s #2 Lawrence Samuels 1143 yds, 15 TD¹s
Kickers: Advantage: Tampa Bay
(C) Peter Martinez 134 pts 80-97 XP 10-20 50% FG¹s
(T) Seth Marler 140 pts 92-99 XP 16-20 80% FG¹s
Saturday June 30th 3:00 pm - (#6) Colorado (8-8) at (#3) Kansas City (10-6)
Head to Head - 3/10 @ Colorado - Crush 44-40 (-8 HF), 4/27 @ KC - Crush 45-42 (+4.5 AD)
Colorado as away dog: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 Over/Under Avg Score 48-54
Kansas City as home fav: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 Over/Under Avg Score 57-51
Team Comparisons:
Offense: Colorado 49.6 ppg (#17) Kansas City 52.5 ppg (#11)
Defense: Colorado 53.6 ppg (#11) Kansas City 48.5 ppg (#4)
Player Comparisons:
Quarterbacks: Small Advantage: Kansas City
(C) John Dutton 61.4% comp 4320 yds 84-17 ratio 102.7 rating
(K) Raymond Philyaw 69.0% comp 4338 yds 85-11 ratio 124.1 rating
Dutton is the more "household" name of the two, but true AFL fans know how effective Philyaw is, and the stats back up his getting the edge here.
Wide Receivers: Edge: Colorado
(C) Damian Harrell 1547 yds, 47 TD¹s #2 Brad Pyatt 1169 yds, 19 TD¹s
(K) Charles Frederick 1385 yds, 41 TD¹s #2 Jerel Myers 1183 yds, 22 TD¹s
Kickers: Advantage: Colorado
(C) Jason Ball 134 pts 90-105 XP 17-28 52% FG¹s
(K) Gary Kral 110 pts 95-120 XP 5-13 39% FG¹s
Monday August 2nd 10:00 pm - (#6) Utah (8-8) at (#4) Los Angeles (9-7)
Head to Head - 4/13 @ Utah - Blaze 76-63 (-6 HF), Last Week @ LA - Blaze 47-37 (-1 AF)
Utah as away dog: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 Over/Under Avg Score 57-66
Los Angeles as home fav: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 Over/Under Avg Score 59-50
Team Comparisons:
Offense: Utah 59.7 ppg (#4) Los Angeles 52.7 ppg (#10)
Defense: Utah 58.3 ppg (#15) Los Angeles 53.0 ppg (#10)
Player Comparisons:
Quarterbacks: Advantage: Blaze
(U) Joe Germaine 68.4% comp 5005 yds 107-12 ratio 124.4 rating
(L) Sonny Cumbie 62.0% comp 4370 yds 83-13 ratio 117.0 rating
Germaine 1st AFL QB to throw for over 5000 yds in a season.
Wide Receivers: Advantage: Blaze
(U) Siaha Burley 2129 yds, 49 TD¹s #2 Tom Pace 1198 yds, 21 TD¹s
(L) Rob Turner 1229 yds, 24 TD¹s #2 Kevin Ingram 1196 yds, 27 TD¹s
Burley 1st AFL WR to have over 2000 receiving yds in a season.
Kickers: Even
(U) Steve Videtich 143 pts 113-127 XP 10-19 53% FG¹s
(L) Remy Hamilton 149 pts 101-114 XP 16-30 53% FG¹s
I was the #1 AFL capper on Vegas Insider in overall money (+1100) and winning percentage (68%) for the regular season. Don¹t miss out on my upcoming playoff selections!
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