NASCAR YellaWood 500 Picks, Predictions

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

2 minute read

The fifth race of the NASCAR playoffs heads to Talladega Superspeedway in Alabama on Sunday afternoon for the YellaWood 500.

Four different drivers have captured the checkered flag through the first four playoff races (Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, and William Byron). Will that trend continue or will there be a multiple winner at Talladega?

Kyle Busch led for only three laps in the last Talladega race in late April, but he finished in the top spot to claim the Geico 500. Busch placed ahead of Ryan Blaney (who led for a race-high 47 laps) and Chris Buescher for his second career win at Talladega.

In last year's YellaWood 500, Chase Elliott emerged victorious, which was actually his most recent win in the past 29 races. Blaney placed second in that race as well, as he seeks his third win at Talladega since 2019.

YELLAWOOD 500 TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (14/1)
3) #43 Erik Jones (33/1)
4) #9 Chase Elliott (16/1)
5) #14 Chase Briscoe (25/1)

YELLAWOOD 500 PICKS & PREDICTIONS

It's hard to deny Blaney's success at this track at the near-misses in the last two races at Talladega. Does that mean he will get over the hump on Sunday afternoon? Not exactly.

But Blaney has proved to be in the mix at Talladega in the past eight races (excluding his crash in October 2020) with four finishes in the Top 2 and nine Top-10 finishes in individual stages.

Hamlin has been up and down at Talladega and isn't desperate for a win considering he was victorious at Bristol two weeks ago. Hamlin owns two career victories at Talladega (2014 and 2020), including seven straight Top-7 finishes in the October races.

Erik Jones has won only once since 2020, but he has fared well at this track. The driver of the #43 Chevrolet has placed 6th in three consecutive Talladega races, while finishing Top-9 in six of the last seven.

YELLAWOOD 500 BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023
Venue: Talladega Superspeedway
Location: Lincoln, Alabama
Distance: 500 miles
Laps: 188
Network-Time: NBC - 2:00 p.m.
Defending Champion: Chase Elliott

2023 YELLAWOOD 500 BETTING ODDS

• Brad Keselowski +1200
• Joey Logano +1200
• Ryan Blaney +1200
• Chris Buescher +1400
• Denny Hamlin +1400
• Bubba Wallace +1400
• William Byron +1600
• Chase Elliott +1600
• Aric Almirola +1800
• Christopher Bell +1800
• Kyle Busch +2000
• Kyle Larson +2000
• Alex Bowman +2500
• Chase Briscoe +2500
• Ross Chastain +2500
• Austin Cindric +2500
• Kevin Harvick +2500
• Tyler Reddick +2500
• Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. +2500
• Austin Dillon +2800
• Michael McDowell +3300
• Ty Gibbs +3300
• Erik Jones +3300
• Ryan Preece +3300
• Daniel Suarez +3300
• Martin Truex, Jr. +3300
• A.J. Allmendinger +4000
• Carson Hocevar +4000
• Corey Lajoie +5000
• Todd Gilliand +6600
• Justin Haley +6600
• Harrison Burton +10000
• Riley Herbst +20000
• Ty Dillon +25000
• Chandler Smith +30000
• B.J. McLeod +50000
• J.J. Yeley +50000
• Brennan Poole +50000

Odds Provided by bet365 - Subject to Change

YELLAWOOD 500 WINNERS

• 2022 - Chase Elliott
• 2021 - Bubba Wallace
• 2020 - Denny Hamlin
• 2019 - Ryan Blaney
• 2018 - Aric Almirola
• 2017 - Brad Keselowski
• 2016 - Joey Logano
• 2015 - Joey Logano
• 2014 - Brad Keselowski
• 2013 - Jamie McMurray

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers