Some like to call the Daytona 500 the Super Bowl of Auto Racing; quite an odd statement since the Super Bowl crowns the overall winner at seasons end. The Daytona 500 is the first race of the season, yet the beauty of the race lies simply with the never ending possibilities that anyone can win the race and perhaps a championship. The hopes and dreams of everyone knowing they all have the same amount of season points when the race starts. That at least used to be the case.
In today’s NASCAR, powerful deep pockets of the manufacturers and team owners have a huge edge over all the rest unlike the old days when you had a few secrets in automotive technology that could elevate a small car owner over the giants. What still is attractive and makes this race so widely popular with all car owners is straight cash. Over $18 million will be given to the 43 drivers that start the race this Sunday with over $1.4 million going to the winner. Just for finishing 43rd, that car that qualifies will make over $200,000. No wonder 72 year old James Hylton is attempting to qualify a car, along with 59 other cars.
Toyota Debut
The field is large this season mostly in part because of the Toyota invasion. Eight Toyota drivers will attempt to make the race by competing in the Gatorade Duels on Thursday. Because they didn’t finish in the top 35 in points last season, they have to race their way in. Only Dale Jarrett, who can use a Past Champions Provisional is guaranteed a spot in the race. It’s likely that several, and possibly all the Toyota’s other than Jarrett don’t make the race.
From a wagering aspect, there has been a prop up for while asking what the best finish position from a Toyota will be in the race. The number is set at 10½ solely because of Dale Jarrett’s experience in the draft. Even if only two Toyota’s start the race it’s hard to figure where they’ll end up during the race with all the drafting. The assumption coming in with the number is that there would at least be three Toyota’s starting the race.
Yates Duo Fast in Qualifying
Robert Yates Racing has put his two cars on the front row. The pole by David Gilliland gives Yates his 5th Daytona 500 pole. Ricky Rudd was fastest in the two practice sessions prior to qualifying and looks to be the driver that is best equipped to take a plate race from the Chevy’s. If this performance by Rudd were at Dover, Pocono, Watkins Glen, or California, I’d be the first in line to get whatever kind of wager I could on him, but it’s on a Superspeedway where Rudd hasn’t been any good at over his entire career. Can Leopards change their spots? Perhaps the year off helped.
If looking for value on a manufacturer prop, maybe let the public bet the combined efforts of Dodges, Ford’s, and Toyota’s down making it cheaper to wager on the pure strength on Chevrolet. The true number on Chevy in this race is -330. The number was calculated based on all Chevy data and the excellent Yates showing in pre-season testing where they were much better than last season. So if you follow Dennis Green’s statement, you could insert Ford for the Bears….The Ford’s are exactly who we thought they were, If you want to crown them, then crown them. Love that line!
Why will Chevy Win a plate race Again?
Other than the fact that Chevy’s do it just about every year, and you basically know who is going to do it, that’s just about it. A Chevy has won 19 of the last 22 restrictor plate races. It’s agreeable by all, that is a pretty good trend which may lend one to believe that laying -330 is a pretty good deal.
Minus -330 is football terms is a 7 point favorite. If the Giants had beaten the Redskins 19 of the last 22 games handily and they were bringing all their starters back and the one glimmer of hope for Redskins was a rookie and bringing back Billy Kilmer (My Rudd analogy), would the Giants be anything less than a 14 point favorite? Just like any game, of course anything can happen, but when you’re dealing with an improved DEI program, the steady Hendrick boys, and Joe Gibbs Racing, that is a difficult task laid before Ford.
The addition of Casey Mears may have made Chevy even stronger. Mears takes over the No. 25 Hendrick ride. The car is the same Vickers had success with in plate races, plus, Mears gets the crew chief that won last years Daytona 500 for Jimmie Johnson while Chad Knauss was suspended. We know Mears can drive in plate races because we saw him finish 2nd and 7th in both Daytona races last year.
If we start looking at the heavyweights of Chevy, it’s basically like an all-star team of plate racing led by Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Jimmie Johnson. Stewart has won two of the last three Daytona races. Gordon has won four of the last 11 plate races. Johnson has won two of the last four plate races, and Junior has won seven plate races over his brief career.
We didn’t even mention the Childress drivers led by Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton. Their times have been down in single lap speeds, but they get real racey in race conditions as evident by Harvick in the Bud Shootout.
Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves with all the Chevy accolades. Roush Racing has made drastic improvements in their plate racing program along with Ganassi and Penske for the Dodges. They may not be quite at the level of Chevy, but they have raced well in the draft which always gives themselves an opportunity to pass on the last lap for a win.
One other quick note about the Ford’s; The last driver to win from the pole in the Daytona 500 was Dale Jarrett for Robert Yates. Jarrett was also the last Ford to win a plate race, doing so at Talladega in the fall of 2005.
Top Drivers that could believe in Miracles
These would be the drivers that if all was aligned properly, just quite possibly could take the Chevy’s down. We begin with Kurt Busch at 25/1. The price alone is value considering how well he has run over his career on Superspeedways. His major problem is finding someone to draft with him. Other than his brother, Busch doesn’t have many friends out there and they just love watching him fall back for some reason.
Juan Pablo Montoya (55/1) has done it all. Why not Daytona at his first crack? That type of reverence is reserved for only the likes of A.J. Foyt and Mario Andretti? This guys is pretty good at wheeling anything apparently and the car he gets to drive finished 2nd in this race last year. He’s said all along that he just wants to finish the race and no expectations are there for him, but if he’s in the lead pack of 10 or more cars, look out Chevy, because it’s on!
I really would like to go out on a limb here, and I am somewhat by my top selection, but I really like all five of these cars above and beyond anyone elses. I would love to see Montoya do it in his first race, but it all comes back to the car and then the drivers who handle them so well. We’ll stick with the Hendrick team that took three of the four plate races last season.
Top 5 Dayton 500 Finish Prediction:
1) #25 Casey Mears (30/1)
2) #20 Tony Stewart (6/1)
3) #8 Dale Earnhardt Jr (7/1)
4) #24 Jeff Gordon (7/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
