Last week's Bud Shootout really got the blood and adrenaline flowing during the final laps as Dale Earnhardt Jr. won the race as a 3/1 favorite. Not just the racing world, but the sports world, was buzzing after the race. Last week was the perfect jump for NASCAR nation to get everyone ready for Sunday’s 50th running of the Daytona 500.
We also got to see sparks fly with Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch during a practice session and from then on, there was a buzz that is likely to carry over to Sunday. For Stewart and Busch, this could be a perfect rivalry; we have been waiting for some time to see anyone go at it with some tenacity. Two former Cup Champions who don’t like each other much and aren’t afraid to show it? I like it! I like it even better that it appears NASCAR is going to let the personalities not get harnessed so much with harsh penalties. Tempers are part of what helped make the Daytona 500 and NASCAR become such an attraction to American fans.
All the major candidates to win on Sunday participated in the Shootout and all the major storylines of the race surround them.
Hendrick Motorsports showed just how far ahead of everyone else they are in restrictor plate racing by having all four of their drivers finish in the Top 6 during the Shootout. In the last 15 plate races, a Hendrick driver has won nine times. When you now factor in Junior with all his plate race wins, Hendrick can lay claim to drivers having won 16 of the last 27 plate races. The trio of Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Jr has been the most dominant plate drivers over the last seven seasons. It’s not hard to figure out why they are the favorites, led by Junior at 5/1, to win on Sunday.
Only two drivers have multiple restrictor plate wins over the last seven years, other than the Hendrick trio and they both come in with souped up Toyota’s. Tony Stewart is a two time Daytona winner at the July Firecracker 400 and Michael Waltrip is a two time Daytona 500 winner. Last season Toyota came in weak with not much test time at all prior to Daytona and suffered miserably. This season, with the help of Joe Gibbs, they look strong and have the ability to pull an upset over Hendrick. Stewart is listed currently at 6 to 1, but originally opened in late November at 16/1. Odds were so high on Stewart just because of the switch from Chevy to Toyota, which some including yours truly, felt an immediate switch would be too tough to do with a car that showed nothing in 2007. I forgot that Joe Gibbs dominated a Super Bowl with Timmy Smith and Doug Williams, meaning he can get the best out of just about anything.
Because of the Gibbs influence, every Toyota team has benefited from their knowledge. We know teammates Waltrip and Dale Jarrett know how to plate race well, but they haven’t recently had anything capable of keeping up with the top teams. Now it looks like they may. Jarrett’s odds to win opened up at 150/1 and is now down to 55/1 while Waltrip opened at 100/1 and is now at 40/1. Both veteran drivers are legitimate long shot candidates to win and may worth a shot in matchups at plus money against several bigger names.
We don’t want to put too much weight into what we witnessed in the 70 lap Bud Shootout last week. However, some observations are just too obvious to discount. Tony Stewart didn’t have anyone helping out there when he needed help in the draft. He attempted to hang with Junior and run with him as much as possible, but it was apparent that his Toyota wasn’t welcome in the Chevy draft train. When it came near the end, Junior got in line with his new teammates and let them push him to the win, which of course brings up another interesting point.
An exhibition race is not hard to stay in line with in order to get a new teammate some confidence, but when the Daytona 500 is at stake with three laps to go, you have to believe that Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson start racing for their sponsors, and not Hendrick. They may say the politically correct thing coming into the race about happy having Junior part of the team, but the Daytona 500 is the pinnacle, and Gordon and Johnson are top dogs. They won’t lay back for anyone.
History says Junior doesn’t have a great shot at winning this week just because only five times in the 29 year history of the Bud Shootout has the winner has gone on to win in the Daytona 500. Only Bobby Allison (1982), Bill Elliott (1987) Dale Jarrett (1996 and 2000) and Jeff Gordon (1997) have done it. The last time Junior won the Shootout in 2003, he dominated. He then went on to dominate a Gatorade Twin 125 qualifying race. He was a 5/2 favorite to win the Daytona 500 but had issues early and finished a lap down in 36th.
On a side note regarding history and linking up two races during speed weeks; Only two drivers since 1996 have won a Gatorade Duel Qualifier and then gone on to win the Daytona 500. dale Earnhardt did it in 1998 and Junior did it in 2004. No driver has ever won all three races during Speed Weeks: The Bud Shootout, a Gatorade Qualifier, and the Daytona 500.
It would be a fantastic story for NASCAR to Junior, its biggest star, wins the race. For whatever it’s worth, NASCAR has already stated that it is in their best interest to have their most recognizable star do well in 2008. It probably wouldn’t hurt business if Junior won NASCAR’s biggest most watched race either. However, the team he’s on presents just too much competition for him, and they will NOT let him win like they did at the Shootout. All the teams use their backup cars for the Shootout while saving their best for the 500. Both Gordon and Johnson went to a third car after a wreck in practice and ran in the Top 4, quite an impressive feat.
The driver we haven’t talked yet about on Team Hendrick is Casey Mears who finished sixth in the Shootout and second two years in the Daytona 500. When Junior came aboard, Mears took over the No. 5 team that Kyle Busch piloted. Mears is nice medium range long shot to win with odds seen as high as 30/1 to win.
We love a good fairy tale story and Junior winning the 50th Daytona 500 definitely would be up there with him winning the very next Daytona race after his father passed. However, it’s hard to look past Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon in this race. They got Junior going in 2008 with support in the Shootout and now it’s time for Junior to lay-up and win future support from them by pushing one of his new teammates to the front. It’s the right thing to do for Junior at this early stage of what could be a pretty entertaining relationship between the three Super-Stars of the sport..
Ideally, what I hope happens in the race from a competitive standpoint is that someone from Ford, Dodge, or maybe even Toyota comes out and beats the Chevy Hendrick dominance. It’s hard to believe a Hendrick driver won’t win unless they are involved in wrecks.
TOP 5 Daytona 500 Finish Prediction:
1) #24 Jeff Gordon (7/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
3) #5 Casey Mears (30/1)
4) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (5/1)
5) #20 Tony Stewart (6/1)
Gatorade Duel Qualifying Races – Thursday, Feb 14th – 2:00 p.m (EDT)
Gatorade 150 Duel Race 1 Finish Prediction:
1) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (8/5)
2) #5 Casey Mears (6/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (9/5)
4) #83 Brian Vickers (13/1)
5) #2 Kurt Busch
Gatorade 150 Duel Race 2 Finish Prediction:
1) #20 Tony Stewart (2/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
3) #10 Patrick Carpentier (9/1)
4) #24 Jeff Gordon (9/5)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
PT’s Pub and Kurt Busch
If you have wanted to sit with a NASCAR Cup team during a race, then you better start playing at your neighborhood PT’s tavern. They will draw for a pair of hot passes that lets you hang with Kurt Busch and the Miller Lite team during the entire Las Vegas race weekend. You can’t buy these anywhere, you just have get lucky, and now the opportunity is there. They’ll also be giving away 10 sets of weekend passes to the Vegas race. PT’s has also made it be known that all 37 of their taverns will show every NASCAR race on with sound, which is a huge bonus for Vegas NASCAR fans. PT’s has marketed themselves to the NASCAR community like no other business in Las Vegas, other than the Speedway, and it will pave the way for several others as they reel in big numbers.
Fiesta’s NASCAR Last Man Standing
Sunday is the last day to sign up for Fiesta Rancho and Henderson’s NASCAR Last man Standing contest. $25 entry fee, buy three get one free, with the winner getting at least a guaranteed $10,000. Each week, 10 matchups for each race will be set; all you have to do is pick the winner and then your entry will advance to the next week. This process goes on every week until only person remains.
