Only five times in the history of the Cup series has a driver won four consecutives races in a row over four straight seasons and its been by done by only three drivers. Richard Petty did it two times, once at Martinsville and the other time at Richmond where he won five straight years. Darrell Waltrip won the same Bristol fall race four straight seasons and totaled seven Bristol wins in a row when including the spring race there. Jeff Gordon won four straight Bristol spring races in a row and then came probably the greatest consecutive streak of all time for Gordon, which was winning four straight Southern 500’s at Darlington.

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Those are some pretty big heavyweights Johnson has an opportunity to join this week. He would become the only driver to win four races in a row at a track that has only one race a year. Greg Biffle attempted the feat last season at Homestead going for his 4th consecutive win, but his teammate Matt Kenseth took the checkers instead.

In reality, Las Vegas has only one true King, and that is Elvis. But Vegas has always made room for excellence in talent and the city especially loves winners. The Rat Pack, Wayne Newton, and Tarkanian’s Runnin’ Rebels have always been loved and revered by visitors and locals alike. Over the last 10 years Vegas has evolved into a Motorsports city. For Johnson, he is fast becoming the closest one can become to being King of Vegas, other than the King himself.

The scary thing about just how good Johnson is that he was so dominant on the intermediate tracks with the old car, and now he’ll be running the new car which he won with five times last season. Last weeks race at California was the first race ever using the Car of Today. Last season the Hendrick team led by Johnson and teammate Jeff Gordon dominated the entire field in COT races. Hendrick spent the most time, money, and efforts to be the best with the new car and it paid off with a Championship, but it was tough pill to swallow for many fans having the same two drivers dominate so easily every week.

It is likely that some of the other teams have caught up and closed the gap between Hendrick and everyone else. We saw evidence of that last season when Roush-Fenway Racing collectively ran well later in the year as they got more data acquired with more races run, as did DEI, Childress, Penske, and Evernham. However, you have to believe that Hendrick is just as ready for this new stage of intermediate track racing as they were when the new car first came out last season when they won the first 5 COT races of the season.

Las Vegas Preseason Testing
Prior to Daytona Speedweeks, the Cup teams all came to Las Vegas for testing with the new cars. The test times were somewhat skewed because of the awful weather conditions and 40 mph winds sweeping through the track. There should also be skepticism with the times because not many teams ran in groups meaning they all basically ran alone. The last cautionary tale regarding the times involves sand-bagging, which Hendrick teams have been known to do once in a while. If you are the best, why show anyone else what you got until the cash is on the table?

On the positive note regarding the test times, fast is fast regardless of any circumstance. Juan Pablo Montoya rolled out with the fastest speed of the two day sessions. What that shows is that Chip Ganassi teams may be onto to something with the new car on the intermediate track. Further supporting evidence that Ganassi was good was Reed Sorenson ripping out the 5th fastest time of the sessions.

Last Week at California
The events that occurred last week at Fontana will assist in determining just how good Hendrick Motorsports and the rest of the top NASCAR teams will do this week in Las Vegas. The rain ruined much of the practice and qualifying sessions at California so we can’t equate how relevant the speeds were to what actually happened in the race itself. As for the race itself, there wasn’t much of a surprise. The top Hendrick and Roush drivers shined as did the Gibbs Toyota’s.

COT’s First Race Run on High Banked 1.5 mile track
California falls into the category of the intermediate track along with Las Vegas, but Vegas is clearly in another category. Vegas falls closer to its sister tracks of Texas, Charlotte, and Atlanta both in configuration and actual speeds run. They aren’t identical, but they are close. A formula to get the best read on what driver will do well this week starts with using 25 percent of what happened in California last week, 40 percent of what happened all last season in the COT, 20 percent of what happened in last seasons Vegas race, and 15 percent of what happened in pre-season Vegas testing. Shake it all up and you should have a pretty good shot at coming up with the winner…..or you just scrap it all and say, “give me Jimmie Johnson”!

Let’s remember that last season’s Vegas race was somewhat of a nightmare for many of the drivers. They were all using cars they were comfortable with, but some of them like Tony Stewart just didn’t like the new configuration of the track. They couldn’t get used to it and none of the drivers could let it all hang out until late in the race. While the track is similar to Texas, Charlotte, and Atlanta, it handles much different, particularly turn 2 where drivers drove into gingerly every lap. Now we come back to the track for its 2nd race and the drivers have new cars, so in reality it’s almost a completely new experience again for the drivers, which they always seem to love.

Jimmie Johnson had the most dominant car on these tracks last season winning the last two races of 2007 on high banked 1.5 mile tracks. However, that was with the “Car of Yesterday”. We saw how good Hendrick was with the COT on all the small tracks last season, but the high banked tracks are completely different. If any team can transfer ideal set-ups from one car to another without skipping a beat, it definitely is Hendrick. However, it just doesn’t seem so black and white. Between Johnson chasing history, the new car, the unfamiliarity of the track, and other teams gaining and testing well, it just seems to pint to another driver. The logical choice at that stage would have to be a Roush driver and a Gibbs driver.

We’ll go with Denny Hamlin in his Joe Gibbs Toyota on the basis of how well he maneuvered through Vegas’ treacherous turn 2 and smoothly finish with a 3rd place finish last season. The knock against betting on Hamlin to win is that he finishes races well, but doesn’t do all he can to win. That sounds ridiculous, but it’s the same thing they used to say when wagering on Mark Martin when he was the No. 1 contender against the Jeff Gordon machine of the late 90’s. Johnson is a tough giant to slay, but every once in a while the giant takes a nap.

Top 5 Finish Prediction

#11 Denny Hamlin (11/1)
#17 Matt Kenseth (8/1)
#48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
#5 Kyle Busch (11/1)
#24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)

Legitimate longs-hot contenders (drivers worth taking a look at if the price is right)

6) #5 Casey Mears (20/1)
7) #41 Reed Sorenson (32/1)
8) #9 Kasey Kahne (25/1)
9) #26 Jamie McMurray (28/1)
10) #07 Clint Bowyer (28/1)