Two weeks ago in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series we saw Jeff Burton win on the high banked short track of Bristol. This week the series rolls into another short track at Martinsville, however, the two half-mile tracks couldn’t be more different from each other. The major difference between them is that Martinsville has virtually no banking and has much tighter turns on the layout that looks much like a paper clip.
At Bristol we saw drivers letting up on their throttle with minimal braking as they ripped through the turns. At Martinsville, a drivers brakes and how he saves them, becomes as big a story during the race as horsepower is at many other tracks. The special cast-iron rotors literally turn into a molten red state as drivers ride them trough the turns to what basically equates to 1,000 times during the 500 lap race. Over the years at Martinsville we have seen some drivers establish a certain knack for executing extremely well on the short tight track. The list of winners and top 5 finishes over the last 10 years may be broader than any other track out there. Anytime you can mix Bobby Hamilton, John Andretti, Ricky Craven, and Ricky Rudd as past winners at a track among all the current Champions of NASCAR that have won there, it gives us all the impression that just about anyone can win because the track itself is the great equalizer against all the power teams of the sport.
Having said that, recent reality over the last five years has seen the Hendrick duo of Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon dominate.
Martinsville probably couldn’t have come at a better time for the struggling Jimmie Johnson because he’s won the last three races in a row there. Johnson started his Martinsville career in 2002 with a 35th place finish as a rookie. Since then, Johnson has never finished outside of the top 10 there with his worst finish being 9th in 2003. Over Johnsons’ last eight starts, he’s finished in the top 4 seven times. How all of Johnsons’ woes play out this week is hard to gauge because momentum means almost as much as a drivers past history at a track, but it’s very reasonable to believe Johnson will stay within his recent realm of success this week.
Johnson didn’t excel at Las Vegas or Atlanta in the new car as he did last season with the old one. Johnson also didn’t excel at Bristol with the new car, but he never has really taken to Bristol. The team has admitted that they’re catching up to other teams on intermediate tracks in the same fashion that other teams chased them in technology last season on the small tracks. Because nothing has changed from last season to this year, other than possibly Johnson’s ego and confidence, expect him to return to form this week.
Jeff Gordon is Martinsville’s all-time money leader and is the active win leader with seven. Gordon hasn’t finished outside the top 5 at Martinsville since 2004 and hasn’t been outside the top 10 since 2002. Just like his teammate, Gordon has four wins since 2003 and all four came in season sweeps. If not for Johnson last season, Gordon likely would have won both races, especially the spring race where the two teammates bumped and banged to finish line with Johnson holding ground against Gordon, who is essentially his boss more than teammate. Along the same lines as Johnson, Gordon should be ready to go again with a track and car combination that they have a good feel for. However, two weeks ago at Bristol does raise a few questions regarding Gordon. Usually very good at Bristol in any car, Gordon was as big a non-factor in the race as anyone. He wheeled a nice 11th place finish, but looked more like he a 25th place-type car.
Might there be something really wrong with the Hendrick duo? Are there any conspiracy theorists out there that believe some of the really good stuff was given to new teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. to ensure early success and not have him in the shadow of his dominant teammates early on? The slow start by Gordon and Johnson is puzzling, but even more so is the fact that Junior has run so well with the junk chassis’ of Casey Mears former #25 team. As for Mears, are you kidding with this guy? He takes over the #5 equipment that Kyle Busch took to 5th in Championship points last season and can’t crack the top 10 in any of the five races that include two 42nd place finishes and a 35th?
Let’s just assume that the Dynamic Duo have trouble again and aren’t in the same state as the tandem that won eight of the last 10 Martinsville races. Who else are you going to take?
Well, there are quite a few that have legitimate shots beginning with a bomb price of 30 to 1 odds in Ryan Newman. He finished 2nd in the fall race last season and may have had a chance on the last lap had there not been a caution. Over his career he’s had his most consistent runs on the track of which include five top 5 finishes in his last 10 starts.
A trio of teammates are the next candidates to look for at Martinsville. Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, and Kyle Busch are all going to be in the running for top 5 finishes. Hamlin alone, just because he’s from Virginia, is a nice candidate. Hamlin’s talent rests in his patience and ability to stay out of trouble, finish well, and score points. On the Virginia short tracks of Martinsville and Richmond, Hamlin becomes somewhat processed and obligated to win at his home tracks and races his car for all it has with no fear of consequences.
Tony Stewart is the only active driver other than a Hendrick driver to win at Martinsville in the last 10 races. An argument wouldn’t come from anyone if it was said that Stewart has had the best car in at least half of the last eight races, but just had the worst luck keeping him from winning more. Stewart loves racing on the track and throws his weight around like a Champion brawler.
Kyle Busch finished 4th twice last season driving in the car that Mears drives now. The current points leader will be gunning again for another win and short track racing is believe it or not after all his success everywhere, is his best suited type of racing because of how physical he drives. Busch would jump into just about anything that was racing at the Bull-Ring in Las Vegas and take it to the front. He’s brash enough to mix it up with anyone, but now smart enough to only do it at the right times and being sure there are no consequences that will stop him from finishing strong in the race. He’s become the complete package of race car driver.
Finally, we come back to Junior who used to be a mainstay in the top 5 before his mother-in-law messed up the DEI organization. Junior took a 5th in the spring race last season which gives him seven top 5 finishes in 16 Martinsville starts. Even though I don’t believe in conspiracies in sports, at least other than the Knicks winning the lottery in 1985 gaining the rights to Patrick Ewing, I do believe there is something fishy there with Junior and Hendrick. It’s likely to just be momentum on Junior’s behalf and unfortunate luck with his new teammates. Junior also appears to have a much better COT than his new teammates which is shocking considering Hendrick laid out the successful blue print last season on the COT for all teams to follow.
Would it be inconceivable to just say Junior is a pretty good driver who raced bad cars the last 3 seasons with DEI and still has bad cars with Hendrick, like his new teammates, but they just aren’t as bad as he’s been used to?
We’ll go with Hamlin to win and Junior to be a thorn in his side.
Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1)
2) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (14/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
4) #12 Ryan Newman (30/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
Micah Roberts is a Race and Sports Director for Station Casinos in Las Vegas , Nevada who covers motor sports from both a bettor and bookmaker's perspective.
