I say that with excitement because this is a race I look forward to, or rather should say, look forward to than most of the others. I like all the races, but I have them tiered in excitement levels. Baseball is a passion of mine for the most part because of nostalgia and historical content. I love how baseball evolves without changing much, if that makes any sense.

In the same fashion I love baseball, I like the Brickyard races. True, there isn’t much NASCAR history with only 14 races being run there, but it’s that aura of being the auto racing cathedral that elevates it past several other tracks on my excitement level chart. I love PacBell park in San Francisco, but I’d take a game at Yankee Stadium if given the choice every time just because of that chill you get from the ghosts of past.

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I think I see it in the drivers as well, which adds to it. They hold this track with such reverence and respect making it arguably the 2nd biggest win opportunity of their career, outside of the Daytona 500.

They all want it, but only a few have been able to win it. It seems like only the best of the best win at the Brickyard. There is a nice correlation between the drivers winning at Indy winning the Championship. In six instances, the driver just kept on going without a hitch throughout the season after kissing the lucky bricks.

Another instance of only the best winning is that of the 14 races won at the Brickyard, only twice has it been by a driver that has never won a NASCAR Cup Series Championship during their career.

Those are some nice historical points to go on so let’s see who and how they apply this week: Kyle Busch is the favorite at 9/2. It looks like he’s going to win the Championship, so he probably fits the theory best. Busch has also had quite a run at Indy over his career with a 10th, 7th, and a 4th place finish last year. He’s looking a lot like the ’98 Jeff Gordon.

Speaking of Gordon, he’s a nice driver to go with if discussing Indy NASCAR history. First of all, he lived there for a short period of time, he won the inaugural Brickyard 400, and then captured three more Brickyard wins to give him four wins which is double more than anyone else. If you like him this week, giving him five Brickyard wins, you can get as high as 14/1.

Tony Stewart is a Cup champion and also defending champion of this race. That gives Stewart two Brickyard wins tying him with Dale Jarrett for second most. I’m still a little apprehensive about Stewart and his involvement with the team he currently owns, but he looked pretty good against everyone in Chicago two weeks ago. I keeping thinking he’s got to win soon, but really Tony, soon is looking close to never. His credentials are nice, however. Not only does he have an average finish position of 7.6 in his nine career starts, the brash driver hails from Indiana too.

The candidate that fits the criteria is Jimmie Johnson. He’s only got one win on the season, but he’s been much better than that despite giving a way a few early shoe-in good finishes in his not-yet-ready for cookie-cutter tracks Car of Tomorrow. The guy is a two time Cup Champion and won at Indy in ’06. Odds on Jimmie are kind of nice this week in the 8/1 range.

The one driver that didn’t make the list was Matt Kenseth, a viable past Champion with a good car capable of winning. Kenseth has the reverse curse working for him because he drives for Jack Roush, the owner who has never won at the Brickyard despite having so many cars under his umbrella. I hate when people pile on certain athletes and coaches for not doing something in their sport, and then all it does is build the pressure even more, but I’m going to do it anyway. Roush’s multiplex of cars have never won any of the two biggest races in NASCAR, the Brickyard 400 or the Daytona 500. He used to say its all about winning Championships, but now he’s got two of those, so you gotta think he wants a high profile win more than anything? If you think Kenseth can be that guy, he can be found in the 14/1 range.

I like all the past history stuff and champions theme, but it doesn’t register as well with me as simple trends in recent similar situations. For the Brickyard races, looking at the previous Pocono race, or races, has been a great model for success. It doesn’t necessarily have to be the winner, but more about who did well at Pocono just before going to Indy. I love knowing that Kasey Kahne and Jimmie Johnson, the two drivers who led the most laps at Pocono in June, are bringing their same chassis.

Kasey Kahne was dominant at Pocono where he took his 2nd win of the season fresh off his two-week Charlotte crushing. He finished just behind Dale Earnhardt Jr’s fumes at Michigan, but has fallen off a bit since, or rather, cooled off. Granted, the last couple of races have been as diverse of courses as one will find over a four-race stretch, but I still expected more from him in Chicago where he was a non-factor all night.

Brian Vickers Toyota may have been the car to beat late in the June Pocono race but Kahne had much fresher tires. Still, Vickers managed to hold on for the impressive 2nd place finish late in that race. He’s a driver you may want to pay close attention this week especially with odds in the 25/1 range. He led on three separate occasions in different stages of that Pocono race. It’s hard to imagine it actually happening, but Vickers has been very close a few times this season.

In another instance of the two races mirroring each other, Last season six of the top 11 finishers at June’s Pocono event went on to finish in the top 11 at the Brickyard. Two drivers who came from absolutely no where on the trend screen to finish well at Indy were Ganassi teammates Reed Sorenson and Juan Pablo Montoya. Sorenson data can’t be found to support him doing well there, but as for Montoya, all you had to was look at his track record winning the Indy 500 and participating in Formula Ones U.S. Grand Prix where his best finish was 4th.

TOP 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
2) #20 Tony Stewart (8/1)
3) #9 Kasey Kahne (5/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (9/2)
5) #83 Brian Vickers (25/1)

Martin makes advanced prediction

While I looked hard at the possibilities of Mark Martin, I had to pass. But when I heard his statements regarding this week’s race, I had to re-think a bit. The below text is from a conversation Martin had while getting out of his car after Pocono in a 10th place finish. It almost sounds like someone else because Martin has never been so bold, but it could just be one of those after the race type statements where he’s got his adrenaline rushing without much hydration.

“I'm planning on winning the Brickyard in the 8 car,” Martin said. “We've got the stuff. We've got the team. The cars are awesome on flat tracks … I have never planned on anything any more than my plan is for the Brickyard. That's the crown jewel.

“And if you look at how that car ran at Phoenix, I believe that we can adapt that setup to work there. The team is strong enough on pit road, and (crew chief) Tony Gibson and those guys that work on that car are due a win.

“They got several disappointments last year when they had great race cars and had failures and what have you. Nothing would make me happier than to see their faces in Victory Lane.”

Martin had his best finish at Indy In 1998 while driving for Jack Roush. Not-so coincidentally, the results from that Indy race had Gordon and Martin 1-2, which is exactly how the season point went.

Micah Roberts is a Race and Sports Director for Station Casinos in Las Vegas , Nevada who covers motor sports from both a bettor and bookmaker's perspective.