After this weekends race in Pocono, only five races will remain in the Race to the Chase. The battle is heating up for the 12th and final position and what makes it even better is that the current battle is between teammates.
The difference between the 12th and 13th positions is a mere two points. Richard Childress teammates Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick are jockeying for those positions. Just back a bit further is David Ragan who has really established himself as a real NASCAR driver and then Brian Vickers and Ryan Newman settle in. It’ll be interesting to see the strategies utilized over the next few weeks by all these drivers attempting to make NASCAR’s equivalent of the playoffs.
This weeks Pocono race is only seven weeks after the first one there. The setups for all the successful teams in that race should be well in tact and ready to go again. Last weeks Brickyard race also gave a little insight for how this week’s race will run because of the similar layout, minus the poor tire compound. In June, Kasey Kahne won with Denny Hamlin in 3rd and Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards close behind. On Sunday, Jimmie Johnson won with Edwards and Hamlin right behind him.
Jimmie Johnson swept the 2004 Pocono season, Edwards won in 2005, and Hamlin swept the 2006 season. Those three drivers should be the starting point for wagering strategies this week. A driver that could be added to the mix is Kasey Kahne. He was dominant in the June race but was pretty weak at the Brickyard in what was surprisingly not the same car he won with at Pocono. When Kahne’s team press release comes out on Tuesday, it’ll be the news that makes the difference between Kahne being the possible 5/1 favorite and being 15/1.
The one variable for this race that can’t be forgotten about is Kyle Busch. He wasn’t a factor in either the Brickyard or the earlier Pocono race, but he still has seven wins and can win just about anywhere he wants. Prior to the Brickyard, we had a week off and perhaps his dominance may have slipped our mind. So to refresh and get back to reality, Busch had won three of the last four races going into Indy.
Jeff Gordon is a four-time Pocono winner who has finished in the top 5 there in half of his 30 career starts coming into this season. Last year he won the first Pocono race and then finished 4th, while also kicking in a 3rd at the Brickyard. This season, his COT wasn’t ready for its first go around at Pocono and he finished with a disappointing 14th. However, the team rebounded well with a great Brickyard weekend that saw them be fast in every practice and then run well in the race with a 5th place finish. Look for Gordon to be in a good position to get his first win of 2008.
TOP 5 Finish prediction:
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (10/1)
3) #99 Carl Edwards (10/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
5) #9 Kasey Kahne (10/1)
NASCAR in Montreal
The NASCAR Nationwide series makes its second ever visit north of the border when they visit Montreal this weekend. Last year inaugural event was a huge success and NASCAR looks to capitalize once again by infiltrating new markets. Eight Canadians will participate in the race led by Patrick Carpentier, who will give up his Cup ride in Pocono in order to drive in his home town. Also featured will be Jacques Villenueve and road course ace Ron Fellows. Some of the hired guns for this event include Scott Pruett, Boris Said, and Max Papis. NASCAR really does have an international feel to it this week with the sport being in Canada and having 5 different nations represented in the drivers.
Because Ron Fellows is driving the No. 5 JR Motorsports car, he will be the choice to win this week followed by Carpentier who finished 2nd last year as well. The best long shot on the board is Australian Marcos Ambrose.
What’s wrong with the tires?
Amid all moaning about the tires at Indy, I must admit that I enjoyed watching the race despite all the competition cautions. There was action, lots of passing, and a hint of the unknown for the drivers that made it entertaining for me as a viewer. I don’t want to see anyone get hurt, but I do like knowing that they have that cautious feeling in their gut that their tire could go at any minute. The change of strategy was a breath of fresh air to watch. Usually the topic is always pitting after 30 laps because of fuel, but this race brought on a whole new facet with regards to the tires that was fun. I know I am in the minority, but that’s okay.
Micah Roberts is a Race and Sports Director for Station Casinos in Las Vegas , Nevada who covers motor sports from both a bettor and bookmaker's perspective.
