Race 26 of the NASCAR Sprint Cup season is the Chase cut-off race. It’s do or die for the 3 drivers battling for that one position and right to make a run for the Season championship.

Currently, Clint Bowyer sits in the 12th and final position with David Ragan only 17 points behind and Kasey Kahne and mere 48 points behind.

All three drivers are currently listed at 50 to 1 to win the championship at Station Casinos sports books. Clint Bowyer would appear to have the edge on getting in because his Richard Childress team has been so good at the flat mid-level tracks. Bowyer won in the spring and also did well at Phoenix, which is a track that requires a similar set-up to Richmond.

What Bowyer does have going against him is history. In three of the last four cut-off races at Richmond since the Chase format started, drivers on the outside looking in have raced their way into the Chase while the driver holding on to the final spot coming in has folded.

Advertisement

It’s kind of fun watching a few drivers try to make up positions and race as hard as they can for their season. However, as a great a story as it would be to see David Ragan or Kasey Kahne get into the chase, it is going to be a tough sell in taking it away from Bowyer.

Unlike the three drivers who failed in the history of the Chase coming into this race, Bowyer might be the best driver at Richmond among all drivers. If Bowyer runs this race in normal fashion as he has the last two years he should easily come out with a top 5 finish. He might even be good enough to get the win, but caution may lead the way for him which may force him to not make the tough pass he normally might.

Last season David Ragan had his best career finish in this race at Richmond with 3rd place. Because of where he stands, he may be forced to make a few extra moves hat he may not want to in order to get more points. He knows how good Bowyer is at this track so he’ll have to push himself to the limit. His odds to win the race are at 35 to 1 which is higher than normal, likely because of the volatile nature of the track and also knowing Ragan has to perform with a Kamikaze mentality. It would be pretty cool seeing four Roush Fords in the Chase.

If things stay the same in the standings as I believe, we’ll see only four teams represented in the Chase. Hendrick, Gibbs, Roush, and Childress will each have 3 drivers in the Chase. DEI, Penske, and Evernham all get shut out for the first time. The biggest surprise of the 3 left out should come from Penske because of how well they came out of the gate with the big Daytona 500 win. The team is well financed and has good drivers, they should be much better than they are. Maybe Dodge isn’t the answer. Not one Dodge in the chase this year.

Back to the race. Bowyer is one of the favorites at 11 to 1, but THE favorites to win are Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch. Big surprise, right? These guys have always been good at Richmond. Kyle Busch has run well there in the old car, the Car of Tomorrow, a Chevy, a Toyota, and just about anything that has a motor. He just knows how to drive on that track and all tracks like it. He finished 2nd there in the spring. It was his 3rd second place finish at the track. He has yet to win at Richmond, but does have wins on the similar tracks of New Hampshire and Phoenix.

Like Busch, Jimmie Johnson has dominated on the 3 mid-range flat tracks. He has multiple wins on all of them, including a sweep at Richmond last season. More encouragement from the Johnson camp should come from the winning information they grab from their Phoenix race that they won in April.

One long shot driver who has a shot of stepping up and beating Johnson, Busch, and Bowyer may be Mark Martin. These type of tracks are the only ones that the declining DEI program seem to do well on. Martin’s lone career win at Richmond came in 1990.

Others who should do well include Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart. Harvick won at Richmond in 2006 and Stewart is a 3 time winner there. The sentimental favorites will be Virginians Jeff Burton and Denny Hamlin. Hamlin won at Martinsville already this season giving him his first Cup win in front of his home state fans. Burton has won at both Virginia tracks, but none since 1998.

TOP 5 Finish prediction:

1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
2) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
3) #07 Clint Bowyer (12/1)
4) #20 Tony Stewart (11/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (9/2)

Logano Makes NASCAR Sprint Cup Debut
This kid has made a huge splash before actually even driving one lap. He has shown in his little time spent that he can drive a good car to success. He will be taking over for Stewart next year, but in order to get him ready, Joe Gibbs will have him drive a few races in the No. 02 car and will also loan him to Troy Aikman and drive his No. 96 Toyota which runs with Gibbs engines. I always remember the ’92 fall Atlanta race as the race where Richard Petty last ran and Jeff Gordon began. However, at the time I knew nothing about Jeff Gordon. Logano’s fanfare and arrival is like I have never seen before.

Micah Roberts is a Race and Sports Director for Station Casinos in Las Vegas , Nevada, who covers motor sports from both a bettor and bookmaker's perspective.