Race 6 in NASCAR’s 10 race version of the playoffs takes us to Martinsville, Virginia this week for some flat short track racing. There isn’t much banking and just about the time a drivers engine gets some fuel from them mashing the pedal, they have to let off the pedal, brake, and start the entire process again. For 500 laps and two sides of the track, that sounds like a workout and an argument worthy of saying NASCAR drivers are athletes.
At the halfway point of the chase we had one driver shuffle into the mix who just about everyone in the NASCAR Nation loves and respects and another fall out who is slowly making himself into one of NASCAR’s villains. Jeff Burton pushed himself to second position in points and is only 69 points from the lead. Carl Edwards is falling much in the same fashion that Kyle Busch did to start the chase. His last two races have seen him post 29th and 33rd place finishes and dropped him two positions with a deficit of 168 points.
Jeff Burton will have tons of support on his side to win the Championship. The reasoning behind it will be because most the Dale Earnhardt fans, and any other top driver who is realistically out, will support Burton because of his good nature and his respect for the sport. Even though Jimmie Johnson is two-time reigning champ, the bandwagon isn’t as full as most would think and that has a little something to do with his teammate, boss, and mentor, Jeff Gordon who still gets the reserved for also-rans, not an elite legend of the entire sport.
As for Carl Edwards and is altercation with Kevin Harvick in the garage area. I thought it was cool and spiced some things up. I want Edwards to be the villain and I want to see guys challenge him. Harvick isn’t exactly an angel himself, and I don’t believe for a minute that he was so innocent as he portrays. Race it out and bang it out on the track. This week at Martinsville is a perfect place for a little “Excuse me tap, sorry didn’t mean to do that….well, maybe just a little bit.”
The favorite to win this week is Jimmie Johnson at 7/2. Those are the lowest odds seen since the Dale Jr dominant days at Talladega or Jeff Gordon on a road course. Based on Jimmie’s record, the odds might be light. He has four career wins on the track including three in a row until finishing fourth this year in the spring.
Johnson’s first run on the track was a 35th during his rookie year in 2002. Ever since, his worst finish has been ninth with a succession of Top 3 finishes. Now in this day and era of NASCAR with so much competition on one side that can beat you , but then also adding in a few bad teams that can end your day quickly, it’s amazing for anyone to have that kind of top 10 streak going for that long a period of time. Everyone from the driver, pit crew, engine builders, chassis builders, and ownership have equal responsibility for the success of that car, not only at Martinsville, but everywhere and it is why they are two-time defending Champions going for their third straight which will tie a modern day NASCAR record.
It is likely that Johnson will finish in the Top 3 again this week, so who else will be there with him? Look no further than his boos in the No. 24, Jeff Gordon. At this juncture, Gordon is out of the Chase, not mathematically, just sensibility. He has hasn’t won since last seasons Fall Charlotte race and he really doesn’t want to go winless in a season for the time since his rookie year. He has seven wins at Martinsville and does have an even better career average finish position than Johnson. The last time Gordon won there was in 2005 when he swept the season. He is 5/1 to win the race should be counted on to contend.
The main driver looking to stop the duo with a great chance at winning is Denny Hamlin at 7/1. He won in the spring at in front of all his home state fans. In a unique twist, Hamlin’s pit crew made the right call in the late stages of that race to take the lead away from Jeff Gordon. In several occasion last season, Hamlin had been wronged late in the races by a multitude of errors and mishaps by his crew.
Another fellow Virginian, Jeff Burton, will be among the crowd favorites and actually have a legitimate shot at making them happy. He could fetch up to 25/1 odds just because of the shift in balance of Johnson and Gordon’s low odds. The proper thing to do in those instances is attract bettors to other drivers because of their odds, therefore the book doesn’t get so bogged down with action the favorites, who are low priced because, well….because they should win on paper.
TOP 5 Finish Prediction:
1: #24 Jeff Gordon (5/1)
2: #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/2)
3: #11 Denny Hamlin (7/1)
4: #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
5: #31 Jeff Burton (20/1)
