All the hard work and data acquired to dissect last weeks race in Atlanta can be put right back into usage this week for Sunday’s Texas race. The high banked 1.5 mile fast tracks around the NASCAR circuit have had very similar results over the course of the season with most of the same drivers doing equally well on all.
Las Vegas, Atlanta, Texas, and Charlotte are configured somewhat the same so the crew chiefs that have nailed down the winning formula on one can carry that success to the rest of them. Case in point; the results from last week’s Atlanta race were almost identical to the spring Texas race results. Four of the top 5 finishers from Texas in April finished in the top 5 last week, including the first two finishers in order.
In six races on these tracks thus far, Carl Edwards has three of them. In two other instances, Edwards had the best car but suffered with issues during the race. His success on these tracks, and especially Texas, should come as no surprise because of who owns his car. Jack Roush has won six of the 15 races held at Texas, including the first two races held there.
Next on the chart of success at these tracks is Kyle Busch. Busch has only won once, doing so in the spring Atlanta race, but he has accumulated more points than anyone in those six races. Last week, amid all his psychological woes of failing in the chase, he held on to a top 5 finish despite not being very good or contending for the entire race.
It was interesting to watch Jimmie Johnson surge late in the race. He looked like he was going to stay out of trouble, get his top 10 finish, and move on. But no, crew chief Chad Knaus took on four tires late when most took two and proceeded to pass every car in his way like Cole Trickle in “Days of Thunder”. He took some gambles and raced hard despite what was at stake. I gained another piece of respect for JJ on Sunday. It wasn’t quite Ted Williams, where he didn’t want to sit out a doubleheader on the last day of the season while hitting exactly .400 at the time, but it was up there in NASCAR treasures.
Matt Kenseth is still winless on the season, but Texas is a place where he runs very well at. In 12 races he has an average finish of 10th, of which includes one win in 2002. Last week Kenseth looked to have the best car on the track as he led five separate times and was the lap leader for the day. This week, we think Kenseth can finish the job.
Another Driver that is winless on the season is Jeff Gordon. He’s got three shots to go before he goes winless for the first time since his rookie season back in 1994. It won’t be easy though. The three tracks coming up happen to be all places where Gordon has had the least success, at least as far as wins are concerned. Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead were all tracks where Gordon had been winless until he won at Phoenix last season.
Gordon is 0-for-15 at Texas and 0-for-8 at Homestead. In a way I hope he does it. There is nothing worse than seeing the sun set on a great career with poor runs. Gordon isn’t there yet, but who can forget watching Richard Petty run late in his career in a car that had no chance at winning? Or, how about Darrell Waltrip winding down his career in that low budget K-Mart car?
It’s not likely that Gordon will experience that huge of a downfall as long as he remains with Hendrick Motorsports, which has him signed for like two lifetimes. However, it’s puzzling why Gordon’s car hasn’t been a car all year that contended for wins. In garage that has put out great cars of teammates Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr., it’s looking more and more alike that Gordon is closer to Casey Mears than the others.
Having said all that, it also speaks volumes about what a great driver he is, because he’s taken cars not very good to decent finishes and made the Chase.
Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
3) #99 Carl Edwards (5/1)
4) #9 Kasey Kahne (18/1)
5) #2 Kurt Busch (25/1)
Johnson Dominates, Lead Grows
Jimmie Johnson’s quest for an historic third consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup championship continues. Johnson finishing second didn’t allow Carl Edwards’ victory to make up too much ground. Going into Texas, Johnson leads Edwards by 183 points and third-place Greg Biffle by 185.
Johnson is trying to become only the second driver in history to win three consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup titles. Cale Yarborough holds that distinction, via his 1976-78 three-peat.
Micah Roberts is the Race and Sports Director for Station Casinos in Las Vegas , Nevada, who covers motor sports from both a bettor and bookmaker's perspective.