Only two races to go in the Chase for the Championship and Jimmie Johnson still has a commanding lead over the rest of the field. However, last week he saw his lead shrink from 183 points down to 106 after a sluggish Texas race that saw Carl Edwards fume his way to victory with a 68 lap final tank of fuel.
Despite the 77 point drop in points, Johnson’s lead is pretty large. The largest lead that anyone has ever come back from after two races is Alan Kulwicki in 1992 who was behind 85 points. That year was the only time that anyone has really ever come back. For some reason in NASCAR there are rarely upsets with the Champions. The driver gets the bulk of the credit, but in reality the true champion is basically the driver with the best team that puts out the best most consistent cars. Jimmie Johnson for the third consecutive year, and likely should have been the fourth consecutive, is that driver again.
If Johnson were to finish seventh or better in each of the next two races, no one can touch him regardless of what they do. The way he has been running lately, the under seven would be a great proposition wager right now.
Johnson goes to Phoenix this week to race on a track where he has won the last two races run there. In five of the six mid-flat tracks run this season, Johnson has won twice and finished second in the other. Those tracks are New Hampshire, Richmond, and Phoenix. Any driver doing well on one should do well on the other because the crew chiefs use the same balance and weighting system for all three, or at least the good ones do.
The driver that could show up to give everyone a surprise is Clint Bowyer. He won at Richmond in the spring and last season he won at New Hampshire. Next up on the flat mid-track list is Phoenix. Because Bowyer isn’t a household NASCAR name like Johnson, Busch, and Edwards, he’s likely to be found a very high price. He will be our selection this week to win.
Bowyer’s Childress racing teammates, Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick, are both equally adept at running well in Phoenix and the tracks like it. Each has two wins in Phoenix along with multiple wins in Richmond and New Hampshire. Both can be counted on as being Top 10 contenders this week. Harvick hasn’t been as good as in the past on these track, but Burton will be on the brink for a possible upset.
Kyle Busch won this race in the fall of 2005 a sort of a tribute to his brother who was childishly suspended by Jack Roush for some trouble he got in with the law. The only reason Roush sat him was because he announced he was going to Penske the following year. Anyways, this is the ideal track for Kyle to get back on track in the win column. Just to be certain he gets the right feel for the track, Kyle will be driving in all three major NASCAR series starting Friday with the trucks, then Saturday in Nationwide, and of course Sunday in the Cup race. What might an appropriate over-under be on Kyle for wins over the weekend? How about 1 win over -175? He’s gonna win the Nationwide race and just might get lucky in the Trucks.
Other drivers that consistently do well here include the DEI teammates of Martin Truex Jr and Mark Martin. Martin was so good at Phoenix in the spring that changed his originally scheduled program of taking this off and racing in Miami and flip-flopped the dates. This will be Martin’s last race this season before he jumps I a full time ride for Hendrick Motorsports next season.
We’re still waiting for two of NASCAR’s best to get a win this year so they don’t get shut out. Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon have both failed to get a win despite running well enough to make the Chase. Gordon has gone 14 straight seasons with at least two wins, let alone just one. Each ahs a great career average finish at Phoenix and both have one win each there.
Top 5 Finish prediction:
1) #07 Clint Bowyer (18/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
3) #17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
4) #8 Mark Martin (25/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
Micah Roberts is the Race and Sports Director for Station Casinos in Las Vegas , Nevada, who covers motor sports from both a bettor and bookmaker's perspective.
