UFC on FX 4: Maynard vs. Guida
June 19, 2012
By Brian Edwards
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The Ultimate Fighting Championship will return to Atlantic City for the first time in seven years this Friday night for UFC on FX 4. The promotion hasn’t been to AC since UFC 53 in 2005.
The main event will feature a pair of lightweight contenders, as Gray Maynard and Clay Guida will collide inside the Octagon. Most betting shops have installed ‘The Bully’ as a minus-350 favorite, while Guida is a plus-250 underdog (risk $100 to win $250).
Several offshores have released proposition wagers. For instance, there’s a minus-155 price on the fight going the distance. Gamblers can collect a plus-115 payout if the fight doesn’t go to the judges.
The most lucrative payouts are for Guida to win by decision (+450) or inside the distance (+553). Maynard by decision offers a plus-125 return and Maynard inside the distance is plus-163 (risk $100 to win $163).
Maynard (10-1-1-1 MMA, 8-1-1-1 UFC) will finally return to the cage after a pair of slugfests against Frankie ‘The Answer’ Edgar. On New Year’s Day in 2011, the two 155-pounders waged a Fight of the Year that controversially ended in a draw. (VegasInsider.com scored the fight 48-46 in favor of Maynard).
Edgar retained his belt but a rematch was immediately granted. However, injuries to both fighters pushed the bout back to Oct. 8 at UFC 136. Once again, just like at UFC 125, Maynard came out strong and nearly finished Edgar in the opening stanza.
‘The Bully’ bloodied Edgar badly and busted up his nose in the opening minutes of the fight. But just like the previous matchup, Edgar regained his composure and started to score points in Rounds 2 and 3. And then late in the fourth, Edgar scored a stunning KO to finally defeat his nemesis.
The Edgar-Maynard trilogy is a tie with one win for each and a draw, and something tells us they’ll meet in the Octagon again at some point.
But now Maynard must begin his climb back into title contention, and he’s got a very tough foe in Guida who is looking to do the same thing. You have to wonder where Maynard’s mindset is after his first career loss and after two fights in which he was extremely close to becoming the champion.
Maynard has left the Xtreme Couture gym and according to Jason Floyd, the host of ‘In the Cage’ on 620 WDAE The Sports Animal in Tampa, “he’s been bouncing around to various camps since [leaving Xtreme Couture].”
Guida (29-12 MMA, 9-6 UFC) saw his four-fight winning streak snapped when he dropped a unanimous decision to Ben Henderson in a title-eliminator match that garnered Fight of the Night honors.
Since joining Greg Jackson’s camp in Albuquerque, Guida’s career has been on the rise with four wins over Shannon Gugerty, Rafael dos Anjos, Takanori Gomi and Anthony Pettis. In the win over Pettis, Guida hooked up his backers as a generous plus-190 underdog (paid $190 on $100 wagers).
Like Maynard, Guida comes from a wrestling background but isn’t afraid to stand and strike. Unlike Maynard, notorious for being a fast starter, Guida has incredible cardio.
Floyd thinks the cardio advantage may play a big role in this bout. Floyd told VI, “Guida carries a high pace and this is a five-round fight. In his last 2 fights, we have seen Maynard's cardio become an issue.”
Floyd and I both agree that from a wagering standpoint, you either take Guida as the generous ‘dog or you pass. I’m still undecided but may pull the trigger on Guida eventually.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--UFC 147 will take place on Saturday in Brazil. This card has been decimated by injuries and the shift of Chael Sonnen-Anderson Silva to UFC 148. The main event is a rematch between native Brazilian Wanderlei Silva and Rich Franklin. Silva opened as a minus-130 favorite but most spots now have Franklin favored in the minus-170 range.
--5Dimes opened Rory MacDonald as a -300 favorite vs. B.J. Penn. The website currently has MacDonald at -260 with Penn as the +180 underdog. This fight is scheduled for Sept. 22 in what will most likely be UFC 152's co-main event.
--Luiz Cane has pulled out of his middleweight debut fight against Yushin Okami at UFC 150 due to an injury. Rousimar Palhares, who is coming off a loss to Alan ‘The Talent’ Belcher, will now take on Okami.
--The main event for UFC on Fuel TV 5 in Nottingham, England, was announced a few days ago. In the heavyweight division, a pair of rising contenders in Stefan Struve and Stipe Miocic will square off at Capital FM Arena on Sept. 29. Struve has won five of his last six fights with the lone loss coming against unbeaten Travis Browne. Duane Ludwig and Che Mills are also slated to meet on this card in a welterweight matchup.
Brian Edwards can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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