UFC FN 126 Best Bets
February 18, 2018
By Brian Edwards
The Octagon returns to Austin for the third time and the first time since November of 2014 when Frankie Edgar defeated Cub Swanson in the headliner. There’s a 12-fight card on FOX Sports 1 with a welterweight scrap between Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone and Yancy Medeiros serving as the main event.
The card starts at 6:00 p.m. Eastern with a pair of fights on UFC Fight Pass. The prelims get going on FS1 at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, with the six-fight main card starting at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
Cerrone (32-10 (1) MMA, 19-7 UFC) took an eight-fight winning streak into UFC Orlando on Dec. 19 of 2015, but his shot at the lightweight title vs. then-champion Rafael dos Anjos didn’t go his way. RDA destroyed Cerrone early and often, finishing him with a barrage of kicks and punches in merely 66 seconds.
With Dos Anjos reigning as the champ at 155 pounds and with two victories over Cerrone, ‘Cowboy’ decided to move up to the welterweight loop. He promptly ripped off four consecutive wins via finishes (three knockouts, one submission) over Alex Oliveira, Patric Cote, Rick Story and Matt Brown.
Since then, however, Cerrone has lost three fights in a row. After getting knocked out by Jorge ‘Gamebred’ Masvidal in January of 2017, Cerrone lost a unanimous decision to Robbie Lawler, but many observers felt Cerrone was deserving of the nod from the judges. In his last time out, Darren Till destroyed Cerrone via first-round KO.
Medeiros (15-4 (1) MMA, 6-4 (1) UFC) has won three straight bouts, including a pair of finishes vs. Erick Silva and Alex Oliveira. He’s bagged five fight-night bonuses in his last eight scraps.
As of early Saturday night, most books had Cerrone as a short -120 favorite, with Medeiros available for an even-money return. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -125), ‘over’ +105).
Let’s get to MY PICKS:
1 - Cerrone -105 (at 5Dimes.eu) for two Units.
2 - Cerrone-Medeiros ‘under’ 2.5 rounds (-122 at 5Dimes.eu) for 3 Units.
3 - Derrick Lewis +120 to beat Marcin Tybura for one Unit.
4 - Lewis-Tybura ‘under’ 2.5 rounds (-110 price) for two Units.
5 - James Vick-Francisco Trinaldo ‘under’ 2.5 rounds (+142 at 5Dimes) for 1.5 Units.
6 - Vick to win inside the distance for +165 payout for one Unit.
7 - Vick to win by knockout for one-half Unit for +450 payout (William Hill).
8 - Sage Northcutt vs. Thibault Gouti ‘under’ 1.5 rounds for +120 return (BookMaker).
Follow Brian Edwards' sports gambling opinions on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
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