New York City will be bedlam on Saturday. Keeping true to tradition like the great before him (Felix Trinidad), Miguel Cotto (33-1-0; 27 KOs) will make his sixth appearance inside the “World’s Most Famous Arena”, Madison Square Garden. The difference this time around has to do with the annual Puerto Rican Day Parade throughout the city and the heavy support inside the venue.

Minus the festive events, there’s business to tend to.

They say for most athletes in the sport that it takes at least one loss in a career for that fighter to realize his potential. For Miguel Cotto that event has come and gone. In an 11th round pounding versus shunned boxer, Antonio Margarito (37-6-0, 27 KOs), Cotto realized that his path to the top would be a bit more difficult then first expected. That defeat in July of 2008 led to a comeback bout against largely unknown (best catergorized as tune-up material), Michael Jennings back on February of this year.

After cruising through the likes of Carlos Quintana, Zab Judah and Alfonso Gomez, Cotto feels he must reinvent himself in the public eye. He certainly has the talent to do so including the will to move forward.

It’s a completely different tale for the challenger, Joshua Clottey (35-2-0, 20 KOs). This is a man in the sport of boxing trying to just invent (not reinvent) himself among the crowded talent in the welterweight division.

At 32 and in the professional arena since 1995, Clottey’s resume lacks the pop that an otherwise perennial champion garners. Five straight wins against the likes of Diego Corrales, Felix Flores and Shamone Alvarez puts the “wow” factor at subpar levels. Not an attack against the Ghana native but if there’s a fight of his life to detail it’s the one coming up on Saturday night.

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That brings us to the wagering window. Most books have no doubt about this exchange, installing Cotto as the overwhelming favorite at minus-340 (bet $340 to make $100). On the flip side, Clottey is looking to return profits as a $2.60 underdog.

The minus-340 price on Cotto is high and indicates a large lack of confidence in Clottey. More or less, we’re faced with several factors that may have influenced books to set this price tag.

For one, Clottey’s skills are being underestimated and underrated. His 20 KOs in 35 fights is just one indication of enough power to contend on the professional level. This is not to say that the uppercut and hooks are overwhelming, but if there’s a concern it’s surely not in the power department.

Clottey is in phenomenal shape and is known for his intense training sessions leading up to fight night. But even after crediting Josh with solid power in both hands and creditable speed, his defensive skills could hurt and not help. In-fact it’s the habit of being too defensive (check accounts of the loss against Margarito) that could actually support some reasoning behind the plus-260 price.

That overwhelming use of his defense slows the pace in the latter rounds. As a result, we can look way back to 1999 in a disqualification loss to well known, Carlos Baldomir. Despite setting the pace and tone for most the fight, a lack of aggression towards the end of the fight resulted in Clottey’s DQ defeat. The main point is that Clottey’s switch to becoming overly defensive was his downfall.

Miguel Cotto is a bulldog of a fighter. Muscular and compact, the Puerto Rican fighter slugger is excellent at forcing the action. He'll look to cut down some of Clottey's reach advantage, fighting inside out. While the jab can be dangerous, expect Cotto to go short to the body. In-fact there's so many ways to envision Miguel's all out assault options that the minus-340 doesn't seem all that high in hindsight. 

Cotto will have to be on the lookout for the three inches of reach that he lacks. Josh is excellent at tossing around his long arms and elbows so don’t forget to factor in this advantage at the window.

Clottey is a very real contender. The odds are truly stacked up against him but we’ve seen (despite unfair circumstances) that Cotto is not infallible. Clottey will need to do everything right and Cotto everything wrong if bettors are going to capitalize this Saturday night.

As we approad fight night one order of bussiness has still been left untouched. Evangelista Cotto. The public confrontations between Miguel and his uncle and once long time trainer, Evangelista, are no secret. But in April the fued spilled over into epic proportions. The two were involved in a fist fight among other dangerous ingagements. The bottom line is that Evangelista has had a lot to do with Cotto's success so not having him in the corner could play an unknown role. 

However the evening ends, expect the environment to be thick with excitement. Cotto is going to have the home field advantage in this fight. The Puerto Rican support will be nothing short of exhilarating even though Clottey calls New York home. Expect to see the focus that Cotto has been known to exhibit in big matches. His ability to adapt to any situation is uncanny.

Whatever the result, fight fans will be pleased.

Here’s a brief list of Clottey’s odds in the past five fights:
-185 vs. Zab Judah (8/2/08)
-350 vs. Jose Luis Cruz (4/3/08)
-365 vs. Shamone Alvarez (12/20/07)
-1100 vs. Felix Flores (8/9/07)
-180 vs. Diego Corrales (4/7/07)

Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.