Editor’s Note: If you’re looking to build your bankroll for the football season, then you should turn your attention to the square ring. Josh Jacobs is hitting 70% of his boxing selections and he’s locked and loaded this weekend. Don’t miss out on his detailed analysis on Saturday's fight from Las Vegas. Click to win!
It’s not every day that a caliber fighter such as Floyd Mayweather Jr. takes nearly a two-year hiatus from the sport after just beginning to reach the pinnacle of his career. Ok, there was of course Sugar Ray Leonard’s 1986 return win to the ring against boxing’s great “Marvelous” Marvin Hagler. And if you really want to take a trip down memory lane then there’s no forgetting Sugar Ray Robinson’s comeback to the sport after a two and a half-year layoff in 1955.
But every fighter, location and the match itself takes on a life of its own. In this case we have the tale of one of boxing’s most enigmatic characters deciding that his time to relax on the white sand of some far away island is still yet a far distance from reality.
The other half of this story is Juan Manuel Marquez. Sixteen years of blood, sweat and tears in the professional arena have resulted in claiming ownership to the current WBA and WBO lightweight belts. But even before earning his last two titles by defeating former lightweight champion, Juan Diaz back in February, Marquez laid siege to the IBF, WBA and WBO featherweight titles including a stint as WBC Super Featherweight champ.
Let’s be crystal clear; Juan Manuel Marquez is a superior fighter. Why the need to make such a bold statement? Because many in the sport question Floyd Mayweather’s motivation for signing on to exchange blows with a boxer who’s never seen the likes of the welterweight division. Some have even gone so far as to question Marquez’s inferior skills compared to Mayweather’s. And this would be doing Marquez great injustice.
This brings us to what will be the scene of the crime on Saturday, the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas. Most books decided to open the fight at $3.00 in favor of Mayweather (bet $300 to make $100). But that number has since skyrocketed to minus-400 for Mayweather as of mid-week. For those even taking a moment to think about taking the ‘dog here the value is high. Marquez is catching a return price of +300 (bet $100 to make $300), that compared to the +220 figure set when this match was rescheduled from the original July 18th date due to a sustained Mayweather rib injury.
What we have here is a lot of money moving in Mayweather’s direction due to several factors. The most obvious issue is Marquez’s lack of experience at the 141 to 147-pound Welterweight division. And put experience to the side in favor of looking at the weight factor in terms of power. Sure, speed kills but so does an upper cut to the chin from a naturally heavier boxer.
Talking about speed, while Marquez is known for his fleet footedness and devastating combinations, let’s not forget what’s been Mayweather’s go-to skill. Floyd has blistering speed in both hands as anyone who’s watched just one of his fight’s can attest. It’s the power he lacks compared to other names in the division like Ricky Hatton, Ricardo Mayorga and Shane Mosley. The more important question to ask is how will the nearly two-year layoff affect Mayweather?
To put it simply, Mayweather will surely show some signs of rust in the early goings. But don’t think for a minute that Marquez will be able to coast to the finish line based on “Pretty Boy Floyd’s” time spent outside of the ring. Mayweather will look choppy and inconsistent, but when his boxing instincts kick in expect an exchange which has the makings of an instant classic.
What could serve as a guideline for betting this fight may very well rest in Manny Pacquiao’s highly controversial split decision win over Juan Manuel Marquez on March 15, 2008 (their second meeting). The disputed scorecard may not exactly be the tool for gauging Saturday night’s expected result. And don’t look to Pacquiao’s explosive style in that throw down to closely match what Mayweather will bring to the table. But what we can draw parallels to is how close this fight will be in terms of energy, punch output and speed. We might hear Mayweather Jr. always talking to the media about how well he’s able to adjust boxing styles from fight to fight. Guess what? Marquez is no different. Case in point; wins against Juan Diaz, Joel Casamayor, Marco Antonio Barrera and, of course, the draw against Manny Pacquiao in their first fight back in 2004.
For betting purposes, the value to take Marquez is no doubt a highly intriguing investment. And while the odds are stacked against the Mexican born and raised fighter this is just the very nature of boxing itself. It’s just the large, looming cloud of whether or not Marquez will make the successful transition in terms of climbing up in weight that has us gamblers walking in circles.
We’re still left debating at the water cooler. Is Mayweather Jr. ready to return to the canvas with a vengeance? Can Marquez impose his hand and foot speed to level the playing field? The questions are numerous but the fact remains, Saturday will test boxing’s two great warriors in Las Vegas. The real question is, will you be watching?
Before signing off here’s a list of some prop bets found at Sportsbetting.com that could be economically beneficial:
Round Prop
Over 11.5 – (-135)
Under 11.5 – (-105)
Final Outcome Props
Draw or Technical Draw – 28/1
Floyd Mayweather by Decision or Technical Decision – 5/6
Floyd Mayweather by KO or TKO or Disqualification – 10/13
Juan Manuel Marquez by Decision or Technical Decision – 11/2
Juan Manuel Marquez by KO or TKO or Disqualification – 9/1