Editor's Note: Pete Diamond recently joined the VegasInsider.com boxing stable of handicappers. Check out his winning pick on the Pacquiao-Cotto fight below and his analysis.
Pacquiao vs. Cotto - ANALYSIS
Everyone is on the Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao train right now. Let’s not forget that a few years ago, everyone was on the Miguel Cotto train as well. For years, Cotto struggled to make the 140lb limit which played a role in what could have been viewed as sub-par performances even though he was winning convincingly, mostly by KO.
Since winning the WBO junior welterweight championship against Kelson Pinto in 2004 by TKO 6, Cotto defended his title six times, five by KO, all coming nine rounds or less. After defeating Paul Malignaggi by unanimous decision in 2006, Cotto made the long anticipated jump in weight to the 147lb division. To date, Cotto once again continued to win mostly by KO at a more comfortable weight. Two notable fights were KO 11 victory of Zab Judah and a unanimous decision victory of Shane Mosley, both in 2007. The one loss on Cotto’s record can easily be disputed due to the later findings of illegal material used to wrap Antonio Margarito’s hands which resulted in a suspension.
Pacquiao on the other hand has seemed to fight comfortable at all of the seven different weight classes that he has fought in since making his pro-debut in 1995 at 107lbs.
Most of Pacquiao’s championship victories have come at the 130lb weight class or lower, most notably, Marco Antonio Barrera, Erik Morales, Oscar Larios and Juan Manuel Marquez. Let’s not forget his one sided victory over an aged Oscar De La Hoya and a second round destruction of Ricky Hatton. Pacquiao’s superb style and speed has made him a very popular and exciting fighter to watch as well as a fan favorite.
Will Manny Pacquiao’s southpaw style prove to give the orthodox Cotto trouble? Cotto was able to adjust to Zab Judah in the middle rounds of their fight in 2007 and end up with a late round stoppage as Judah’s conditioning faded. The real question is will 147lbs prove to be too much for Manny? Could this be where the speed and power don’t have the impact it’s proven to have at a lower weight class.
Miguel Cotto has showed a tendency to slow down toward the later rounds. He has also shown resiliency and the ability to fight through fatigue, injury and knockdowns. After fighting Judah and Mosley, Pacquiao’s speed shouldn’t be too much for Cotto to overcome.
Cotto’s excellent boxing skills will allow him to go late into the scheduled twelve rounds and possibly catch the sometimes wild and wreckless Pacquiao coming forward. In addition, is Pacquiao looking passed Cotto at a possible Mayweather Jr. match-up?
I look for Miguel Cotto to box a patient mix of defense and offense and for Pacquiao to pace himself for a longer fight and not be as aggressive at the higher weight.
Our pick: Over 9 ½ rounds - WINNER
