Can you picture the San Francisco 49ers winning the Super Bowl this year? How about the Denver Broncos? It could happen. Those teams finished 8-8 in 2009, the same record the New Orleans Saints had in 2008 before going on to greater things. That’s how the NFL rolls. If you’re going to pounce on those football betting lines when the regular season opens next week, you have to be prepared for change.
Sure, there are a few teams that come as close to “dynasties” as you can get in the NFL. The Indianapolis Colts (14-2 SU, 10-5-1 ATS in 2009) are 17-2 favorites at press time to win Super Bowl XLV; they’ve won at least 12 games every year since 2003, and they have all the core elements in place to return to the Big Game after losing to the Saints last February. You also have the New England Patriots (10-6 SU, 7-7-2 ATS) near the top of the futures market at 12-1, itching to get their fourth Vince Lombardi Trophy since Tom Brady took over as quarterback. It’ll take some major injuries to disrupt their march to the postseason.
Or perhaps a suspension. The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7 SU, 5-10-1 ATS) have two Super Bowl victories in the past five years, but QB Ben Roethlisberger will miss at least the first four games of the 2010 campaign for violating the league’s personal conduct policy during the offseason. That knocks the Steelers down to 22-1 on the NFL odds list, although that could be a bargain if former Oregon star Dennis Dixon and/or veteran Byron Leftwich can hold down the fort in Big Ben’s absence.
Are the Saints on the verge of a dynasty? They went to the playoffs in 2006 in their first season under coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees. Then New Orleans fell back to the pack for a couple of years before going 13-3 SU (8-8 ATS) en route to the Super Bowl. The 2010 Saints are 10-1 to defend their championship; they might have to face the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 without defensive back Darren Sharper and linebacker Clint Ingram, but otherwise, this is a very talented team with a lot of respect among league circles.
The Vikings (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) came painfully close to beating the Saints in last year’s NFC title game. This year, they’re 11-1 to get over the hump and win their first Super Bowl. QB Brett Favre is back after enjoying an amazing 2009 season, throwing 33 touchdowns and just seven interceptions at age 40. That’ll be difficult to reproduce; Favre won’t have wide receiver Sidney Rice (83 catches, eight TDs) for quite a while (speculation is eight weeks) because of an injured hip, and WR Percy Harvin (60 catches, six TDs) has been having migraine problems.
Out on the West Coast, the San Diego Chargers (13-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) have made the playoffs four years in a row, all with bad-boy QB Philip Rivers at the controls. The Bolts are 11-1 to go all the way this year, but it looks like Rivers will have to work without restricted free agent holdouts Marcus McNeill at left tackle and Vincent Jackson at wide receiver. They will be missed more than running back LaDainian Tomlinson, who has posted two straight seasons below 4.0 yards per carry and has moved on to the New York Jets.
If defense wins championships, then the Jets (9-7 SU and ATS) are in great shape at 11-1. They moved to the top of the league in defensive efficiency last year under new coach Rex Ryan, but the offense has some room to grow under young QB Mark Sanchez. The former USC Trojan posted a 63.0 passer rating as a rookie; can he grow from there, or will he turn out like former college teammate Matt Leinart (74.0 rookie passer rating in 2006), who appears to have lost his starting job with the Arizona Cardinals?
In the end, all these teams could be looking up at the Dallas Cowboys (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS), the second favorites at 9-1 to win the Super Bowl. Owner Jerry Jones has assembled a top-quality team around QB Tony Romo; Dallas is 38-17 with Romo under center the past four seasons. Then again, where’s the betting value in America’s Team? Like we said off the top, if you want to duplicate the success New Orleans supporters enjoyed last year, perhaps the Tennessee Titans (8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS) are your team. They’re 30-1 to win the Super Bowl, but they did go 8-2 SU (5-5 ATS) last year after QB Vince Young retook the starting job. That makes Tennessee 26-13 overall with Young starting, a record that compares well with Romo’s at over three times the Super Bowl payout. Talk about bang for your buck.
