Everything changes. It’s a simple fact of life, but sometimes people are a little slow on the uptake. We naturally expect things to act the way they did before, and then we get surprised when they don’t. That’s why you need to pay attention to change if you want to bet on the NFL. Some teams will be dramatically better this year; others will be far worse. Here are the Week 1 betting matchups from Sunday featuring the teams that have done the most work during the offseason to become viable contenders in 2010.
Denver at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Broncos (8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS) are in Year Two of Josh McDaniels’ reign as head coach. He put his stamp on the team right away, trading QB Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears for QB Kyle Orton (21 TDs, 12 INTs). For 2010, McDaniels has shown malcontents WR Brandon Marshall and TE Tony Scheffler the door. Don Martindale has been promoted from linebackers coach to defensive coordinator; he’ll get to work this year with three-time Pro Bowl NT Jamal Williams, formerly of the San Diego Chargers. Jacksonville (5-11 SU, 4-12 ATS) has very little going for it as a franchise at this point. Yet they’re 3-point favorites (+105) as we go to press.
Detroit at Chicago (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Cutler’s first season with the Bears (7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS) was one he’d rather forget. He led the league in interceptions with 26 to go along with his 27 touchdowns. But here comes the cavalry. Chicago hired Mike Martz as offensive co-ordinator, and his style matches Cutler’s gifts quite nicely. On defense, the signing of five-time Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers from the Carolina Panthers is key, and LB Brian Urlacher (six Pro Bowls) is reasonably healthy after getting knocked out for the year with a wrist injury in the 2009 season opener. Detroit (2-14 SU, 4-10-2 ATS) is on the road to recovery, but contender status is still somewhere on the horizon. The Bears are favored by 6.5 points at home on the NFL odds.
Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
Both of these AFC East rivals have made progress, but the Dolphins (7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS) are better positioned to break through in this tough division. Whatever his issues were in Denver, Marshall made over 100 catches in each of his first three full seasons, including 101 last year in just 13 starts. The offense could be electric with QB Chad Henne (12 TDs, 14 INTs) entering his second year at the controls. The defense will also improve with LB Karlos Dansby coming over from the Arizona Cardinals. Buffalo has been snakebitten by health issues and questionable coaching; the latter appears to have been solved with Chan Gailey taking over as head coach. The Bills are getting three points at home at +105.
Oakland at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Raiders (5-11 SU, 8-8 ATS) may have made one of their most important moves in a long time by snapping up QB Jason Campbell (20 TDs, 15 INTs) from the Washington Redskins, but there’s still quite a lot of work to do in Oakland. Meanwhile, the Titans (8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS) are on a return path to glory, led by QB Vince Young (10 TDs, seven INTs) as the undisputed starter after making his second Pro Bowl last year. The defense will miss LB Keith Bulluck and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch; however, first-round pick Derrick Morgan can play both those positions. The Titans are 6-point home faves at –115.
Dallas at Washington (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)
It’s not easy to endorse a team with an owner like Dan Snyder. But the Redskins (4-12 SU, 6-8-2 ATS) made some undeniably positive moves during the offseason. First and foremost, they hired Mike Shanahan as their head coach, the man who took the Broncos to Super Bowl titles in 1997-98. Then they replaced Campbell with six-time Pro Bowl QB Donovan McNabb, who is coming off yet another strong campaign (22 TDs, 10 INTs) with the Philadelphia Eagles. Washington lost five games last year by a field goal or less. Better results are on the way, although the season opener is a tough matchup against the NFC East rival Cowboys (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) with Philly getting three points at –105.
