When Euro 2012 began, defending champion Spain was the odds-on favorite to win the tournament. However, the Spaniards were overtaken by the Germans following the group stage, and Germany did nothing in its quarterfinal match to relinquish favored status and it is now at 3/2 at Bovada win the title Sunday in Kiev.
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Germany was the only side with a perfect nine points in group play and it looked dominant in a 4-2 victory over Greece in the quarterfinals. That put Germany into the finals of the European Championship for the seventh time; it is the only three-time champion of the event. Germany has now won a team-record 15 straight matches dating to a victory over Uruguay for third place at the 2010 World Cup.
Germany is led by Mario Gomez, who was the favorite at the book to be the tournament's leading goal scorer and still is, now at 7/4. He has a co-leading three goals so far and two of the three players tied with him are on teams that didn't advance out of group play. Gomez didn't score vs. the Greeks largely because he only entered as a substitute in the 80th minute. Now that's depth.
The Germans could be missing a key player in Thursday's semifinal match vs. Italy. Midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger might sit because of a lingering ankle injury. Schweinsteiger has been playing through it but he didn't play all that well vs. Greece.
Germany is still a -130 favorite with Italy at +400. A regulation draw is +250. The Italians (5/1 to win the tournament) are in their first semifinal since finishing runner-up at Euro 2000. Italy beat England in the tournament's most thrilling match so far, 4-2 in a shootout after the match ended in a 0-0 tie (the first scoreless match at Euro 2012). Italy dominated the match, outshooting England 35-9 but twice hitting the post. Antonio Nocerino appeared to score in the 115th minute but was offside. England, which led the shootout 2-1, again was a tough-luck loser, losing in the same manner at Euro 2004 and the 2006 World Cup to Portugal.
The favored score for Thursday's match at 5/1 is Germany 1-0. A 1-1 regulation draw is next at 11/2, followed by Germany winning 2-0 and a 0-0 draw, both at 7/1. You can get Germany's Gomez at 6/1 to score at least two goals. If there is a penalty kick scored by either team, that pays at +300 compared to -450 for no penalty kick score.
The semifinals begin Wednesday with Spain facing Portugal, with the defending champs a -115 favorite and Portugal at +320. Spain (7/4 to win tournament) advanced with a 2-0 victory over France thanks to two Xabi Alonso goals. The win was Spain's first ever over France in a competitive match in seven attempts.
Portugal (5/1 to win Euro 2012), meanwhile, advanced with a 1-0 victory over the Czech Republic. Superstar Cristiano Ronaldo scored the lone goal on a header in the 79th minute. It was Ronaldo's third goal to tie Gomez for the tournament lead. And Ronaldo is the 9/4 second-favorite to Gomez for the top goalscorer of Euro 2012. It's the third semifinals berth for Portugal since 2000, but the Portuguese are still looking to win their first championship.
Ronaldo scoring at any time vs. Spain is at +175. He is the 4/1 favorite to be the Man of the Match and the 6/1 favorite to score the first goal Wednesday. Spain has much more overall talent than Portugal with three players all having two goals in this tournament: Alonso, Fernando Torres (+138 to score any time in the semis) and Cesc Fabregas (+220 to score any time). David Silva (+250 to score any time) is tied for the tournament lead with three assists. Andres Iniesta is Spain's favorite to be the Man of the Match at 6/1 vs. Portugal.
The favored exact score for Wednesday is Spain 1-0 at 9/2, followed by a 1-1 draw at 11/2. Both teams scoring at least one goal is at +125. A penalty kick to be scored is at +240, with none at -333. The first goal of the match being scored after the 27th minute is a -125 favorite. No goal at all is +600.
Bet on Euro 2012 now at Bovada Sportsbook.
