NCAA Football Futures Odds Exposure At Bovada
The college football season kicks off Thursday night around the country so here is a final look at where the book stands on some of the NCAA futures props.
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Southern Cal remains the national championship favorite at 3/1 and has slightly increased its gap over second-favorite Alabama (5/1). The Trojans did take a minor hit late last week, however, with the news that starting cornerback Isiah Wiley had been ruled academically ineligible for the upcoming season. He started the final six games of 2011 and had 39 tackles, four deflections and one fumble recovery. USC was prepared for this news as Wiley had missed all of camp. The book is exposed on Southern Cal to win the national title. The Trojans are one of the biggest favorites of the first week at -40 against Hawaii. It is also exposed on Wisconsin (30/1), Michigan (40/1) and TCU (75/1) to win it all.
The Wolverines' national title hopes could vanish as soon as Saturday if they are routed by the defending national champion Tide in the opening weekend's biggest game. The Wolverines are 12.5-point dogs for the matchup at Cowboys Stadium outside of Dallas. Don't think an opener is all that important? Since 1980, only four times has a national champion had a loss to a non-conference opponent that same season. The last team was Florida in 1996, which lost to Florida State in the regular-season finale but then faced the Seminoles again in the Sugar Bowl and routed them for the national title.
Alabama, the winner of two of the past three national titles, hasn't lost a nonconference game since the 2007 season, Coach Nick Saban's first in Tuscaloosa. It appears as if the Wolverines will have starting running back Fitzgerald Toussaint for the opener. Toussaint is technically still suspended after an offseason arrest but has been practicing with the team. He started 11 games in 2011 and rushed for 1,041 yards and nine touchdowns. Toussaint is listed as the Week 1 starter on the U-M depth chart. Michigan hasn't beaten a Top-10 team since the 2008 Capital One Bowl.
Of course Michigan's star is quarterback Denard Robinson, a Heisman Trophy favorite. And among all of Bovada's over/under player props, the book is easily most exposed on "Shoelace." Bettors are clearly expecting a big season for the senior as the heavy action is on over 2,175 yards passing for Robinson as well as over 17.5 passing touchdowns. Robinson threw for 2,173 yards and 20 scores last season.
The book is also exposed on over 3,900 yards passing for Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones, another Heisman candidate. He has easily surpassed that yardage total each of the past two seasons. Jones' Sooners open at UTEP and are 30.5-point favorites.
Other players the book has exposure on are West Virginia receiver Tavon Austin on the over 1,075 yards receiving and Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson (-135) having the most yards passing compared to fellow SEC quarterbacks A.J. McCarron of Alabama (+195) and Aaron Murray of Georgia (+105). Wilson easily led the conference in yards a year ago with 3,638.
Austin had 1,186 yards receiving for the Mountaineers in 2011. To make better use of Austin, WVU coach Dana Holgorsen has moved him from the "H" spot to the "Y" spot in the offense. Essentially, that moves Austin closer to the ball and the "Y" has been the most important receiver position in Holgorsen's offense over the years.
Finally, on the various odds to win the BCS conferences the book is most exposed on a long shot: Minnesota at 150/1 to win the Big Ten championship. The Gophers haven't won the Big Ten since sharing it with Indiana and Purdue in 1967 and haven't won it outright since 1941. The book is also highly exposed on Michigan State at 5/1 to win the Big Ten, Connecticut (25/1) to win the Big East, South Carolina (11/1) to win the SEC and Oklahoma State (8/1) to win the new-look Big 12.
Check back Thursday for a weekend live betting preview at the book.
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