Week 9 MNF Props
November 5, 2012
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Unlike last week's MNF game between the 49ers and Cardinals, this week's game between the Eagles and Saints should see its fair share of scoring. Both defenses come into this game struggling and both offenses can move the ball quite easily at times. That doesn't mean the rather large total of 52 will be eclipsed though, so here are some props to look at tonight.
First score of the game will be: Touchdown (-210) vs. any other score (+165)
Whenever you have a game with Drew Brees involved, it's tough not to expect a barrage of touchdowns to be scored. However, in this case, I'm not sure it warrants these odds. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL allowing TD's in the red zone at 37.5% and barring last week's defensive debacle, there isn't much to suggest that Philly won't bow their necks up there and hold the Saints to a FG try. On the road, Philly only allows opponents to score TD's on 20% of their red zone trips and holding Brees and company to an opening FG would no doubt give the Eagles defense confidence for the rest of the game. That is because the Saints are #1 in red zone TD scoring percentage at over 72%. Yet, if you average out those two numbers (Philly D vs. Saints O) you get an average of the Saints scoring a TD on 54% of their red zone drives. We are only concerned about the first points on the board though, New Orleans might not even be the ones to get it.
Now if Philly is the team to open first, they will have to convert better than their 45% TD/Red zone percentage indicates. Yes, the Saints are bad defensively but they are going to step up one of these days soon because their season depends on it. Vilma has had nearly a month of practice time now with his teammates and you've got to believe that any time the Saints hold an opponent to a red zone FG is considered a win for them.
The odds simply dictate a play on the "any other score" at this price.
DeSean Jackson total receiving yards: Over 77.5 (-125) or Under 77.5 (-105)
Any fantasy football player will know that the Saints defense allows the most fantasy points to opposing WR's of any team in the league. In seven games, New Orleans has allowed those WR's to catch 95 passes for 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns. That is an average of 214 passing yards per game to WR's and all we need is 78 from Philly's #1 guy.
Desean Jackson has had a trying couple of weeks of late, going for only 59 yards a week ago, after going for 74 the week prior to Philadelphia's bye. Yet, even Detroit and Atlanta's respective secondary's are quite a bit better than what he'll see from the Saints tonight. He is an outside speed guy that will surely get a few targets deep down field tonight, and one connection there could eclipse this total itself.
Take the over.