Week 10 Look Ahead
November 8, 2012
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Last week, books everywhere got hit hard in what was one of their worst weeks ever in the NFL in recent years. Favorites went 10-4 ATS, but more importantly it was the favorites like Denver, Detroit, Chicago and Baltimore that cashed. All four of those teams had significant money on them from sharps and squares alike, making it a tough day for bookmakers.
This week you've already seen some bigger numbers on the board, as there are three double digit favorites on the board and not too many of those -3's and -4's that flooded the board in Week 9. Sports betting is a long-run game and the books, which have had a good year prior to Week 9, are hungry for a chance to get their money back. Could this be the weekend?
Teams looking ahead to their bye:
Bye weeks are nearly their end as there are only four teams yet to have their week off and may fall into that trap of looking ahead to the time off. That may especially be the case with these four teams as they have played every week for over two months straight now and are no doubt looking ahead to that time off. Teams heading into their bye weeks in Week 11 are Minnesota (+2), Seattle (-6.5), Tennessee (+6) and the New York Giants (-4).
Potential look-ahead spots:
Week 10 also sees numerous teams that are atop their respective divisions or fighting for that lead facing some of the NFL bottom feeders. What makes these games quite interesting is the fact that in Week 11 those "good" teams have some huge divisional rivalry games on their schedule, making them likely to look past this week's "weaker" opponent.
First, we have Oakland (+7.5) @ Baltimore (-7.5) and KC (+12.5) @ Pittsburgh (-12.5) on MNF. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are battling for the AFC North lead and they meet in Week 11 on Sunday Night Football. So not only do we have a spot, where these two AFC North teams are looking ahead to renewing their rivalry, they have a prime-time showcase game to do it. They get to face two of the worst AFC teams out there in Oakland and KC this week and are laying a ton of chalk. Chances are at least one of those dogs cover and may put a serious scare in Baltimore/Pittsburgh if they are caught sleepwalking through this game.
Next we find Denver and San Diego in a similar spot this week. They have their rematch in Denver in Week 11 after that MNF game a few weeks ago where San Diego blew a 24-0 halftime lead. This week they both are on the road and playing NFC opponents in Carolina and Tampa Bay. Cross-conference games don't mean a whole lot in terms of tiebreakers when all is said and done, so don't expect San Diego or Denver to be at their best this week.