Week 9 Betting Recap
It was an unusual Week 9 of NFL betting at the book in that of the five most-wagered games, four of them were almost at a 50-50 split on the spread. The one game that wasn't was easily the top winner of the week for bettors: Denver's 31-23 win at Cincinnati.
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It was the third straight win for the surging Broncos, who are now the 17/4 third-favorites to win the AFC Championship Game behind Houston (11/5) and New England (9/4). Peyton Manning's 300-yard passing streak ended at five games in Cincinnati; he was just nine yards short of tying Steve Young's NFL record of five straight games with 300 yards and three touchdown passes.
Manning rallied Denver from a 20-17 fourth-quarter deficit for the 48th final-quarter winning drive in his career, which broke a tie with Hall of Famer Dan Marino for most such drives for quarterbacks that have debuted since the merger. The Broncos closed as five-point favorites and took more than 81% of the action. At -250, Denver grabbed almost 83%, and the over 47.5 points was at nearly 66%. The Broncos were one of 10 favorites to cover in Week 9's 14 games, which always bodes well for casual bettors.
The top player props of Week 9 for bettors were: Texans running back Arian Foster over 110.5 rushing yards against Buffalo (he finished with 111); Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo over 285.5 passing yards at Atlanta (321); and Dallas tight end Jason Witten over 6.5 catches against the Falcons (7). Ironically, the book's top two player prop results were also on Romo and Witten - Romo under 1.5 touchdown passes (1) and Witten under 67.5 yards receiving (51). There was no huge game result win for the book. The best was the Monday night Saints 28-13 home victory over the sliding Eagles. New Orleans was a three-point favorite and took around 51% of the action. However, at +110 the Eagles took almost 57%, and the under 53 points was only around 24% of the lean. Philadelphia is the worst ATS team in the NFL at 1-6-1 and among the worst on the over/under at 2-5-1.
Thursday's Live Betting Preview: Colts at Jaguars
Even after drafting the highly touted quarterback Andrew Luck with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, expectations weren't high for the Indianapolis Colts this season. After all, Indianapolis only won two games last year and three in future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning's rookie season of 1998 - of course Luck has taken Manning's spot in Indy.
Following Sunday's 23-20 victory over Miami, Indianapolis is 5-3 and holds down one of the AFC's two-wild card spots (currently 75/1 at the book to win the Super Bowl). Will the Colts be caught in a trap game Thursday night at Jacksonville? Indy is an opening 3.5-point favorite with the total at 42.5.
What will Luck do for an encore versus the Jaguars? Against the Dolphins, Luck completed 30 of 48 passes for 433 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. That yardage total is the most by a rookie in a game in NFL history, besting the previous mark of 432 set by Cam Newton in 2011. Luck has four 300-yard passing games already, tying Manning's record for a rookie QB. No quarterback drafted No. 1 overall has ever led his team to a winning record in his rookie year.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, is tied with Kansas City for the NFL's worst record at 1-7. Sunday's 31-14 loss to Detroit was the Jaguars' fifth straight. Their young quarterback, Blaine Gabbert, is struggling in his second season. Gabbert's rating of 78.4 is 27th in the league and Jacksonville ranks dead last in passing yards per game at 170.4.
The Jags are also last in total offense at 254.4 yards per game and in points at 14.6 per game. Jacksonville again will be without its best player on Thursday night as running back Maurice Jones-Drew has been ruled out a third straight game with a foot injury. Rashad Jennings will get the start.
Jacksonville's lone win was at Indianapolis in Week 3, 22-17. Gabbert threw an 80-yard touchdown pass to Cecil Shorts III with just under a minute left for the winning score. Jones-Drew had a big game with 177 yards and a touchdown. Luck threw for 313 yards and two scores. Incidentally, Jacksonville hosted Indianapolis in Week 17 last season and the Jaguars won 19-13. That loss assured Indianapolis the top pick in April's draft and the chance to take Luck. A victory would have dropped Indy to No. 2.
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