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Thursday Night Football Prop Betting

The Dolphins and Bills kick start Week 11 tonight and while many are focussed on who will come out on top of this AFC East matchup, I’ve found a couple of prop bets that I really like tonight.

Reggie Bush Total rushing + receiving yards: Over 89.5 (-115) or Under 89.5 (-115)

For those that don’t know, Reggie Bush was benched in the 2nd half of last week’s embarrassing loss to the Titans. He simply wasn’t performing well and a lost fumble all but sealed his fate in a game that was already out of hand. To Bush’s credit, he came out after the game and apologized to the Miami faithful for such an embarrassing performance and vowed to perform to only the highest standards from here on out.

Well, Bush gets a nice opponent to kick-start that mantra as the Bills have allowed opposing RB’s to gain over 1250 yards rushing against them, scoring 14 TD’s in the process; both are worst in the league. As long as Bush can pop a few good runs early on, bettors won’t have to worry about the potential for reduced playing time and Bush is still a dynamic threat in the screen game. Last year in Buffalo, he ran for 203 yards on 25 carries so he should manage at least 100 yards in total offense tonight, especially when the Bills give up over 400 per game to their opponents.

Take the over.

Ryan Fitzpatrick Total TD Passes: Over 1.5 (-115) or Under 1.5 (-115)

This is only the 4th Bills home game this year and it is in upper New York where Fitzpatrick tends to play his best. He has only failed to throw less than 2 TD passes in three games this year and all were on the road. When you see that they were against top-notch defenses in San Francisco, Arizona and Houston, you can’t be that surprised either.

In his three home games though, he has games of 2, 4 and 3 TD passes – clearing this number each time. In his home game vs. Miami last year Fitzpatrick passed for another 2 TD’s and given how desperate the Bills are to get back into the playoff picture at 3-6 SU, we could see him take a few more shots on Miami’s side of the field.

Take the over.

David: 2013 Bad Beats
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