NCAA Football Week 12 Betting Recap
For the second week in a row, the top-ranked team in the BCS standings was upset in college football. This time the victim was Kansas State and former Heisman front-runner Collin Klein as the Wildcats were stunned by what had been a 4-5 Baylor team, 52-24. That was easily the book's top game result of the week.
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Baylor, one of the nation's worst defenses, held KSU to just 76 yards rushing and picked off Klein three times in the school's first-ever win over a No. 1 team. Klein had thrown only three interceptions in the first 10 games. It tied the largest margin of defeat ever by a team ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings. Ironically, Kansas State was involved in the other 28-point beating, doing the trick on No. 1 Oklahoma in 2003. This year's Wildcats were the fifth team ranked No. 1 in the BCS to lose to an unranked opponent and the first to lose to a team with a losing record heading into the game.
Kansas State was a 13-point favorite and took nearly 81% of the lean. Bettors did recoup some on the total, with more than 69% on the over 75 points. Klein finishing with less than 90.5 rushing yards - he had a season-low 39 yards on 17 carries - was one of the book's top overall player prop results.
The most-wagered game of the week was another stunner: Stanford's 17-14 overtime upset of BCS No. 2 Oregon in Eugene. The Ducks had scored at least 40 points in an NCAA-record 13-straight games but couldn't do much against the physical Cardinal. Stanford now controls its destiny in the Pac-12 and would face UCLA in the conference title game with a win this week at … UCLA. Yep, the teams could play in back-to-back weeks.
On the spread, Stanford's win wasn't too bad for the book as the Cardinal at -19 took a very slight majority lean. The total was a great result for the book as just 11% of the action was on the under 68 points. Oregon star running back Kenjon Barner under 127.5 rushing yards was another big win.
UCLA's 38-28 win over Southern Cal was another excellent result for the book as just 27% of the lean was on the Bruins at +4.5. Only around 27% took UCLA at +175 on the moneyline.
The top game result for bettors was North Carolina's 37-13 victory at Virginia on Thursday night. The Heels closed as 3.5-point favorites and took more than 62% of the action. At -165, UNC took almost 67%. The top player prop results for bettors were: Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones over 339.5 passing yards against West Virginia; Baylor quarterback Nick Florence over 3.5 total touchdown passes and interceptions versus K-State; and Stanford running back Stepfan Taylor over 92.5 rushing yards against the Ducks.
Alabama Again Title Favorite
Kansas State's and Oregon's losses were clearly Alabama's and Notre Dame's gain. The unbeaten Irish rose to No. 1 in the BCS standings with the Tide at No. 2. However, as of now Alabama would be about a 10-point favorite over Notre Dame should the teams meet for the national championship. Thus the Tide are 5/8 national championship favorites at the book with Notre Dame at 5/2.
The Irish conclude their regular season Saturday at Southern Cal and won't have to face injured Trojans' star QB Matt Barkley. Win that, and Notre Dame can book tickets to Miami. Alabama closes against Auburn in the Iron Bowl this weekend (as a 31.5-point favorite) and then faces Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. The BCS No. 3 Dawgs (11/2) face a test this Saturday against surging Georgia Tech. UGA has beaten the Jackets in 10 of the past 11 meetings, however, and is an opening 13-point favorite.
Oregon fell to 10/1 to win the national title. The Ducks could still reach the national championship game without even winning their own conference, much like Alabama did last year. UO is a 9-point favorite this week at Oregon State. The Ducks would win the Pac-12 North with a victory and Stanford loss. Kansas State (20/1) needs plenty of help. The 'Cats are off this week and host Texas on Decemeber 1.
The Longhorns still have a shot to win the Big 12 title and host TCU on Thanksgiving Night. That used to be when UT and Texas A&M faced off but A&M's move to the SEC ended that heated rivalry. UT is an opening 8-point favorite versus the Frogs.
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