Early Thoughts for Week 12
The NFL season is now 11 weeks old and that means it’s now or never for teams to make that final push towards the playoffs. Aside from a few division leaders, plenty of playoff spots division crowns are up for grabs, including a very muddled wildcard picture in both conferences. There will be plenty of moving and shaking from now until that final horn goes on Week 17, but for those in contention, slipping up now is deadly.
Thanksgiving Thursday action
This week is also Thanksgiving and that means a full day of NFL action on Thursday. Three great games are on the slate as Houston and Detroit kick it off, followed by two great divisional matchups between Washington and Dallas and New England and the New York Jets. Both Houston (-3.5) and New England (-7) are listed as road favorites in those contests while Dallas is laying 3 points at home in their game. Historically the home teams as a group have a small edge on these Thursday games as they are 9-8 SU and ATS in the past six seasons. However, the most important numbers coming from the past six years is the fact that Detroit is 0-6 SU and ATS over that span losing every one of those at home. This year’s game doesn’t set up well for them to end that streak either as they take on the team with the best record in the AFC in Houston.
Bye Week teams
This is also the final week of the season where we will have teams returning to action off their week of rest. Last week, Washington, Arizona, Cleveland and Green Bay all brought home the money to backers, even if it was quite the struggle for Green Bay. This week we have Tennessee (-3), Seattle (-3), NYG (-3) and Minnesota (OTB) fitting that role with three of the four (excluding the Giants) being on the road. Tennessee and Seattle both have very winnable games at Jacksonville and Miami respectively, while the Vikings are in Chicago to take on the reeling Bears.
We can’t forget about the Giants though as they host Green Bay on SNF this week in a rematch of last year’s NFC divisional round. New York got out to a 20-10 halftime lead in that one and then took control of the game for good with 17 points in the 4th to win 37-20. There is no way Green Bay has forgotten about that loss as that was the season the Packers went 15-1 SU during the regular season and were poised to defend their title. I expect both teams to be extremely sharp for this game with the revenge angle favoring Green Bay and the bye week angle favoring the Giants. It could be the best SNF game of the year.
That isn’t the only game we have this week that is a rematch from the divisional round last year as the 49ers head to the Bayou to take on the surging Saints. The playoff game between these two teams last season was one for the ages with Vernon Davis making that huge TD grab late to give San Fran the win. New Orleans gets the rematch at home and having won five of their last six, they couldn’t be playing better football of late. Until San Fran figures out their QB situation, gamblers don’t have a point-spread to follow on this contest. Keep your eyes on when it comes out.