MNF heads to Philadelphia
November 26, 2012
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CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-8) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-7)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Carolina -3 & 41
Opening Line & Total: Panthers -2.5 & 41
Philadelphia seeks its first win since September when it hosts Carolina on Monday night.
The Eagles limp home to face the Panthers, and without the services of QB Michael Vick and RB LeSean McCoy, both recovering from concussions. Rookie QB Nick Foles was positively dreadful in his first career start, going 21-for-46 for 204 yards and 2 INT and failing to lead a touchdown drive against a weak Redskins pass defense. The Panthers managed to blow another lead last week, leading the Bucs by eight with the ball and under two minutes left, before losing in overtime. But while the Panthers are just 1-3 SU on the road, they are 3-1 ATS, and have covered in six of their past eight road games.
Neither team has inspired much confidence this season, but the Eagles have some telling trends working in their favor, because of last week's 31-6 loss to Washington. Any team, poor offensive team (14-18 PPG), facing a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a loss by 21+ points, is 25-5 ATS (83%) over the past 10 seasons. Philly is also 18-5 ATS (78%) after a loss by 21+ points since 1992, and is 5-2 (SU and ATS) all-time in this series including three straight wins by an average of 17.7 PPG.
The Panthers have the worst record in the NFC at 2-8, but six of their losses have come by six points or less. Last week was the fourth loss in which they led in the fourth quarter. QB Cam Newton has just 13 total TD this season, which is well behind his pace from his amazing rookie campaign when he scored 35 times. But he could certainly have a big day against a Philadelphia passing defense allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 76-of-97 passes (78.4%) for 216 YPG, 11 TD and 0 INT over the past four games. The running game hasn't been great either (108 YPG, 16th in NFL) with a paltry 149 yards on 55 carries (2.7 YPC) in the past two weeks. Top RB Jonathan Stewart has gained just 125 yards in the past three weeks combined for Carolina. But the Eagles have allowed more than 100 rushing yards in each of their past six contests, surrendering 169 last week in Washington.
The Eagles' six-game losing skid is the longest since 1994, and the past four defeats have been particularly painful, with each coming by at least 13 points. That has dropped the team to a league-worst 1-8-1 ATS for the season. McCoy was injured in the final two minutes of last week's blowout, further fueling the Philly fans' ire with head coach Andy Reid for leaving him in the game. With McCoy out, Bryce Brown expects to get the bulk of the carries. Brown has rushed the ball just 32 times all season, gaining 141 yards (4.4 YPC) and zero touchdowns.
He'll be facing a mediocre Carolina run-stop unit giving up 118 rushing YPG. In addition to his poor passing day, Foles was sacked four times behind an injury-riddled offensive line that has given up 33 sacks this season, the third-most in the NFL. The Panthers have allowed 232 passing YPG this season (17th in NFL), including 265.5 YPG in the past two weeks. The Eagles' turnover margin has also been a disaster during the long losing skid, as they have 12 giveaways, but just three takeaways.
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