Thursday NFL Props
December 6, 2012
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Week 14 gets going tonight with the Broncos and Raiders playing in an AFC West game that means very little to the AFC picture. Denver clinched the division with a win last week and now have their sights set on one of the top two seeds in the AFC so they can earn a bye and home-field for at least one game. Oakland has been out of it for some time now but would love to play spoiler against a hated foe, however, given they are double-digit underdogs; the chances of that happening are slim.
Here are some prop bets that have caught my eye for tonight's game as both teams have offensive stars that would like to help up some fantasy football owners.
Prop #1: Knowshon Moreno rushing yards: Over 78.5 (-140) or Under 78.5 (+110)
The odds on this prop are heavily favored to the over and Oakland's stats against the run tell you why. The Raiders are 28th in the league vs. the run, allowing 130.4 yards per game and an average of 4.66 yards per carry. In their last three contests they have given up an average of 164.6 yards on the ground and tonight they face a RB who has looked very good since coming back from injury a few weeks ago.
Moreno has rushed for 85 and 69 yards respectively in his two games back from injury since being named the starter. In both contests he got the ball 20 times and with Denver likely leading this game in the 2nd half, those carries could even go up. Those numbers may not seem spectacular, but the 69 yards came against the league's best rush defense in Tampa Bay and if he can do that against them, he should eclipse that by a large margin tonight.
Take the over.
Prop #2: Sebastian Janikowski total points: Over 7.5 (+100) or Under 7.5 (-130)
The Raiders kicker has been one of the best in the league for years now and he has a tough time missing FG's from any spot on the field. He has such a powerful leg that Oakland does not hesitate to send him out there for 55 yarders or more and given that he accounted for all six Oakland points in the first meeting with the Broncos, you've got to think he will be able to get a few more opportunities here at home.
Although the total has been bet down from its opening number of 51, it still is 1.5 points higher than that game in Denver and Oakland is a better offensive team here at home. Obviously for an over we would need three FG's or a couple XP's and FG's and I believe that is well within Oakland's capabilities tonight. Even if they get stopped around Denver's 40-yard line, Janikowski will still trot out there and give it his all. Oakland should be able to move the ball well enough that he gets numerous opportunities to put points on the board.
Take the over 7.5 at +100.