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Week 14 NFL Best Bet

The 2012 NFL season has reached its final quarter of the regular season and teams are now making that last push for either a playoff spot or a high draft choice. Those are things you can’t forget about when breaking down games because losing out is often a viable option for some of these bad teams. How can you forget the “Suck for Luck” campaign in Indianapolis last season? Obviously that has worked out quite well for the Colts this year as they are on the brink of making the playoffs. They, or any other “bad” team are not our focus though for this week’s best bet.

Arizona (+10) vs. Seattle (-10); Total set at 35.5

This is not exactly the game many are looking at this week given how bad Arizona has been in the past two months and become just an impossible team to trust. However, they do welcome QB John Skelton back this week and he should help this anemic offense put up some points. Arizona hasn’t scored more than 20 points since the end of September and no matter how good your defense is that simply won’t get it done in this league. They are 0-8 straight up and 2-5-1 against the spread in that span and are getting double digits in this divisional game.

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But the side isn’t where I’m looking as I said; Arizona is an impossible team to trust. When you combine that with the fact that Seattle is 5-0 SU and ATS at home this year, you simply can’t take the points with Arizona here. However, you don’t really want to lay the -10 with a Seahawks team that ranks 24th in total offense and only scores 20.2 points per game. Giving up 10 points is a very real possibility to a Cardinals offense that will be energized with Skelton back in the fold.

That is what brings me to this total. Yes, the two teams may only combine for 35.7 points per their season averages but the first meeting saw 36 points combined with Skelton and Russell Wilson playing their first starts of the season. Seattle’s offense has been getting better of late and has scored at least 21 points in each of their past five contests. They should be able to do something similar to Arizona in this one.

Finally, one other lineup tidbit of information that helps tremendously in terms of the total. Seattle CB Brandon Browner will begin serving his 4-game suspension this week, cutting Seattle’s great CB tandem in half. Browner has been phenomenal against top WR’s all year and the back end of that Seahawks defense will miss him tremendously here. Look for Skelton to take a few more shots to that side of the field and when a guy like WR Larry Fitzgerald has his QB back, you know he is primed to go off.

Take the over.

  
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