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MNF Prop Picks

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MNF Prop Betting - Houston at New England

While Monday Night Football’s schedule has been anything but great this year, we have an outstanding battle tonight between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. Many are calling this a potential AFC Championship preview and with both teams holding the top two seeds in the AFC coming in, they may be right. Yet, like every week, it is still the only game on the board and that means time for a little side action with props:

Prop #1: Arian Foster rushing yards: Over 92.5 (-115) or Under 92.5 (-115)

Foster came into this week in the top five in terms of rushing yards this year with 1,102. In 12 games played that is an average of 91.83 yards per game so seeing this number where it is shouldn’t be a surprise.

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New England ranks 8th in the NFL against the rush, allowing 101.1 yards per game which is still good enough to cash an over ticket in this case. It is also impossible to forget that New England’s rush defense is a little skewed simply because they are winning so many games, many by big margins, that teams are forced to abandon the run in an attempt to make a comeback. Houston is hoping they won’t need to do that and with how well balanced they are, they likely won’t.

However, the key thing to remember about this prop is that Foster is coming off his 2nd worst game of the season last week as he only rushed for 38 yards on 14 carries. It was Houston’s defense that did most of the work forcing 6 turnovers, giving their offense short fields to work with in closing out that game. Foster will no doubt rebound strong after that performance, especially when Houston’s gameplan going in will be to keep the ball, have long drives, and keep Brady off the field. To do that you need a lot of running and Foster will oblige.

Take the over.

Prop #2: Tom Brady passing yards: Over 300 (-115) or Under 300 (-115)

Like Foster, Brady is coming off one of his worst performances of the year and he only threw for 238 yards and had his lowest QB rating of the season at 74.8. In 12 games he has eclipsed the 300 yard mark seven times, but never once has he had back-to-back sub-300 yard games. Brady knows that the offense will have to move the ball all night against a talented Houston team if they want to win and should be able to do so. Houston is in the middle of the pack (16th) in terms of passing yards allowed at 234.8 a game but Brady has only been under that mark once all season.

In fact, the only times he does go under 300 yards is when his defense puts at least a TD or two on the board, giving New England a bigger lead and allowing them to run out the clock. I have a tough time seeing that happening tonight and if by chance the Patriots are losing in the 2nd half, you know Brady will be slinging it all around.

Take the over.

  
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