MNF Player Props
December 17, 2012
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The final Monday Night Football game of the year goes off tonight as the New York Jets try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. A win in Tennessee tonight would put them at 7-7 SU and tied with Pittsburgh for 7th spot in the AFC. They would trail the 8-6 Bengals by one game and with Cincinnati in Pittsburgh next week, anything could happen. New York can only concern themselves with what they can control and that simply means winning out.
But I'm not concerned with who will win the game in this piece as there are a couple of prop bets I really like tonight.
Prop #1: Shonn Greene rushing yards: Over 71.5 (-115) or Under 71.5 (-115)
If the Jets are going to come out of Tennessee with a win, they will need a strong rushing attack for the entire 60 minutes. Tennessee ranks 25th in the league vs. the run as they allow 127 yards per contest, a number that should be topped tonight. Everyone knows the Jets don't have the weapons at WR or trust in Mark Sanchez's ability to win games through the air, so New York will lean heavily on guys like Green and Joe McKnight to get the job done.
Since breaking out with 161 yards vs. another AFC South team (Indy) in Week 6, Greene has only topped this number three times but two of those have come in the past two weeks. In fact, in those two most recent games Greene has seen his workload increase, getting at least 20 carries in each game and making the most of his opportunities. He has carried the ball 20 or more times in four games this season and in each of those he eclipsed this rushing number of 71.5 rather easily. So, as long as you believe (as I do) Greene will get to carry the ball 20 times, there is only one option here.
Take the over.
Prop #2: Kenny Britt total receptions: Over 4 (-130) or Under 4 (+100)
Britt's struggles this season have been well-documented and with only 520 receiving yards on the year this is likely a season the young wideout will want to forget. But last week might have been a turning point as Britt looked explosive again and caught 8 passes on 9 targets for 143 yards. He failed to get into the endzone for the 3rd straight week, but any time you can get production like that from one of your top guys you'll take it.
That was also the first time since Week 9 that he caught more than 4 passes, a number he has only reached five times in 11 games this year. So when you are failing to be a big part of the offense for more than half the season, what could possibly change tonight? Yes, Britt went off last week but that was against an Indianapolis team that ranks 20th against the pass. The Jets are 2nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed and will have their best CB (Cromartie) all over Britt tonight. New York is one of the worst teams vs. the run (28th) so when the Titans have a guy like Chris Johnson in the backfield, you've got to expect he will be the focal point of Tennessee's attack. Britt has only caught 5 or more passes three times this year, and against the Jets nothing will change.
Take the under.