NFL Best Prop Bets
January 17, 2013
The final four remain do battle this weekend in the NFL and for bettors that like to get in plenty of action during the final few weeks of football will no doubt be looking at all the prop bets offered at Carbon Sports. Not all the props are released yet, but of the ones that are, here are two that caught my attention.
SF/ATL: Total Field Goals Made By Both Teams: Over 3.5 (+130) or Under 3.5 (-160)
Bettors saw the offensive explosion during the Divisional round and are expecting more of the same this week. However, this game features two of the best red zone defenses in the league and they do it in different ways.
San Francisco allows the fewest red zone attempts against them per game at 2.2, and while they have allowed TD's on 61% of those red zone opportunities, the door is still open for a few FG tries. Atlanta has made 3 or more FG's in six of the nine games they've played at home this year and against a quality defense like the 49ers, finishing drives when things tighten up will be harder. Five of those nine Atlanta home games have gone over this 3.5 FG's total, two of which came in games after the Falcons scored 30 or more.
San Francisco's kicking woes with David Akers has been a story for months now, but the perfect conditions inside a dome should help the veteran kicker. Atlanta allowed 2.8 red zone attempts per game this season, but opponents only converted 47% of those opportunities into TD's. They were fourth best in that regards and although Seattle managed to convert three times last week, things should be different this week. SF kicked two FG's in two of their three "dome" games this season and the only time they didn't was against a New Orleans team that was horrible defensively.
Given the value (+130) on the over here, I see it as the only option. Given the pressure of this game, coaches could/will get conservative with their play-calling offensively and drives will stall.
Take Over 3.5 FG's made.
BAL/NE: New England Total Points: Over 30.5 (-115) or Under 30.5 (-115)
For how great Tom Brady and the Patriots have been during his Hall of Fame career, the Ravens have always given him problems. Emotions will be high in this game given what's on the line and the rivalry between these two and Brady will likely see Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and plenty other Ravens defensive players in his face all night.
These two are very familiar with each other and nothing Brady does will completely surprise Baltimore. What is a surprise though is the fact that Brady and the Pats have never scored more than 30 points against Baltimore. In seven contests since 2004, New England has never scored 31 or more against Ray Lewis and company and only hit the 30-point mark once. Granted that 30-point game came earlier this season but Suggs wasn't around then and the Ravens defense was still finding their footing this year.
Baltimore's defense has always done a phenomenal job forcing Brady's offense into settling for FG's when they get in tight as the Pats have kicked three FG's in each of the past three games vs. Baltimore. Settling for FG's isn't the way to score 30+ points and Baltimore's experienced defense will do everything they can to keep the Patriots out of the end zone. Baltimore's defense really only allowed 21 points last week to Manning as it was two TD's in the kick return game that put Denver at 35. Coach John Harbaugh comes from a special teams background and will have those mistakes fixed this week.
Take Under 30.5 points.
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