Super Bowl XLVII Props
January 28, 2013
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Super Bowl week is here and as the players arrive in New Orleans and get ready for media day, bettors everywhere are pouring over the massive Super Bowl prop cards. This year is no different and it can be exhausting to go through and find good investments. I'll touch on a few of the props I like in the next few days, starting with the generic "game" ones.
What will the coin toss be (Heads/Tails)? And which team will win the Coin Toss (Baltimore/SF)?
Heads (-105) vs. Tails (-105) and Baltimore (-105) vs. San Francisco (-105)
I'm not a big fan of betting the heads/tails option because it doesn't make much sense to cost yourself 5 cents on the dollar to bet on something you can do with a buddy in the comfort of your own living room. Because it's the Super Bowl though, bettors love to make this wager and I can tell you that in the past four years it's landed on "heads" and that may be significant. I say that because while there have been many streaks by one side of the coin in Super Bowl history, not once have we seen the same result five years in a row, so it might be "tails" time.
Which team will win the coin toss is a different story though. Before the Patriots (AFC) won the toss last year, the NFC was on a 14-0 run winning the toss. That was only the 15th time the AFC has won the coin toss in the history of the Super Bowl and as a franchise the 49ers are 4-1. Baltimore will have a chance to lower San Fran's winning percentage by picking their option as the "road" team. With the coin toss won or lost this year, Baltimore only received the ball to start the game once, so look for them to defer if they do win it.
Longest FG made in the game: Over 44.5 (-115) or Under 44.5 (-115)
A good rule of thumb when trying to figure out how long FG's will be, always add 17 yards to the line of scrimmage. Kickers typically line up 7 yards behind the line and the posts are 10 yards deep in the end zone, so for this one to go over a drive would have to stall out at the 28-yard line or further.
San Francisco was tied for 1st in the NFL this year with 2.4 FG attempts per game and although Baltimore was 23rd (1.8), these are two defenses that will really clamp down on you. San Francisco and Baltimore take pride in forcing teams to attempt a FG after it looked like a TD was coming. Neither team has attempted many FG's so far in the postseason and that hurts the "over's" chances here but other than Denver, neither team has really faced against a top quality defense that knows how to toughen up in their own zone. With perfect conditions inside the dome and this contest expected to be tight and points at a premium, you've got to expect one of these kickers to knock in one 45 yards or more.
Take the over.
Number of different players to have a pass attempt: Over 2.5 (+240) vs. Under 2.5 (-320)
This is always a fun Super Bowl prop to look at because you are trying to gameplan along with the coaches and figuring out if some sort of trick play should be in the works. Back in 2005 we saw WR Antwaan Randel-El connect on a TD pass to Hines Ward in the Super Bowl, and trick plays have been known to pop up in the Super Bowl over the years. RB Frank Gore has never attempted a pass in his career, but Ray Rice has, twice, so when you add in that element, that +240 is quite attractive.
Finally, we have the Kaepernick/Alex Smith scenario here as well. Before Smith went down with a concussion in Week 10 and Kaepernick was the starter for good, these two shuttled in and out of offensive series all the time for the 49ers. Putting in Alex Smith for a few reps is something you cannot put past Jim Harbaugh and I think he lets Smith see the field at least once. He knows the Ravens have spent their time figuring out every which way to stop Kaepernick and could've completely forgotten about Smith. Green Bay "forgot" about the "pistol" formation San Francisco has relied heavily on in these playoffs after they didn't run it for the final few weeks. The Packers were shocked, unprepared, and torched by the pistol. Who says Jim Harbaugh doesn't try that again with Alex Smith in there a few times? Smith doesn't have to do well for this bet, simply attempt a pass.
Whether or not Smith comes into this game doesn't change the fact that there are too many variables not to take the value on over 2.5 (+240) here. Trick plays, injuries, and Alex Smith are all legitimate options and with it being brother vs. brother here, chances are these two know each other so well that they'll each have a few tricks up their sleeve too.
Take the over.