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SBXLVII - Line Moves

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Super Bowl Action Report

Baltimore Ravens +3.5 to Win Super Bowl XLVII

We opened the 49ers -5 and as stated in a previous article, all the early money was on the Ravens.  We settled on 4 late Monday night of last week and stayed there until early Wednesday morning when we went to 49ers -3 ½.  Since going to 3 ½ last week, we’ve remained at that number and haven’t budge since that move from 4 to 3 ½.  It has been dead even action at 3 ½, but I do believe we will eventually see 49er money come in later in the week that might, might get us to go back to 4.  I can’t imagine us ever going to 3 so I’m of the opinion this line closed 49ers -3 ½ or -4.

As for the total, we opened it high and all the early money was on the under 49 ½, 49, 48 ½ and 48, before we started writing good, solid two way action at 47 ½.  We’ve written slightly over action at 47 ½, but since all the early money has been on the under we won’t be moving back to 48 anytime soon.  We will write mostly over action as we get closer to the big game and I believe we will close this total at 48 flat. 

The real liability for us so far is on the Money Line.  We’re exposed on the Ravens on all our Super Bowl futures, and all the early Money Line action has been on the Ravens.  We went as low as 49ers -155 and most of our sharper players and value players laid the 155 because that is such a low money line for a 3 ½ point favorite.  We’re currently dealing 49ers -160, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if we closed it -155 or even as low as -150. 
 

  
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