Prop Picks - Ravens
January 31, 2013
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Super Bowl Prop Betting: Baltimore Ravens Edition
Yesterday I touched on a few of the prop bets for the Super Bowl in general and in terms of all the prop bets offered, they didn’t even crack the surface. There is plenty of value to be found in the prop betting and there is quite the extensive list at Carbon Sports.
Today, I’m looking at specific prop bets regarding the Ravens and have found a few very attractive ones.
Anquan Boldin total receptions: Over 4.5 (-150) or Under 4.5 (+120)
This prop is heavily juiced to the over and for good reason. Boldin has been targeted at least 7 times in each playoff game thus far and with his ability to be that clutch possession-type receiver, he will be instrumental in the Ravens quest for a championship. He has caught at least 5 passes in each playoff game so far and will likely reach that number in the Super Bowl.
I say that because San Francisco has got to be weary of the speed demons WR Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith stretching the field and taking the cap off the defense. They’ve seen plenty of film of Flacco airing out deep to one of those guys and having plenty of success doing it. The 49ers will aim to take that away from the Ravens and keep everything in front of them. Baltimore will continue to try and stretch the field and when they do, that leaves plenty of room for Boldin to operate in the 5-to-20-yard range and move the chains.
The juice is a bit steep, but Boldin has been on the big stage before (with Arizona) and that night he caught 8 passes for 84 yards as teammates Steve Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald were the deep threats that day. Baltimore will use him in a similar fashion.
Take the over.
Total rushing yards for Baltimore: Over 104.5 (-115) or Under 104.5 (-115)
One of Baltimore’s best players is RB Ray Rice, but he’ll have a tough time running the ball against this 49ers defense. During the regular season, San Francisco was 4th in the league in rushing yards against at 94.2 per game. In their two playoff games they have bettered that number to 92.5/game and their worst effort was exactly 104 yards allowed to Green Bay. A few of those runs came in garbage time though as San Fran was more concerned with not letting anything go over their head for big plays. Either way, both of their games this postseason have been under this number and when these two teams met a year ago, Baltimore still only ran for 92 yards total. For this to have any chance of going “over,” someone on Baltimore will have to break a long one and I don’t see it happening.
In last year’s game the longest rush anyone on Baltimore had was 12 yards and that was with Ricky Williams. In the NFC Championship, the longest rush the 49ers allowed was 12 yards as well and vs. Green Bay they gave up a long rush of 19. Unless there are a handful of runs like that by Baltimore, this prop has little chance to eclipse this number.
Take the under.