Prop Picks - 49ers
February 1, 2013
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Super Bowl Props: San Francisco Edition
Today I’m looking at the various props offered regarding the 49ers performance in the big game on Sunday. Like yesterday’s piece on Baltimore, there are some good numbers out there with the 49ers player props.
Here are a couple that have got my attention.
Aldon Smith – Total solo + assisted tackles (sacks don’t count): Over 3.5 (-150) vs. Under 3.5 (+120)
After all the accolades Smith got during the season when he was on pace to break the single-season sack record, he seems to have disappeared in the playoffs. In the two playoff games Smith has a grand total of 3 tackles and 0 sacks. Green Bay and Atlanta found ways to neutralize his pass-rushing ability and with Justin Smith nowhere near 100%, offensive lines can key on Smith and take him out of the game.
Baltimore should be able to accomplish this as well as any help they do bring against San Francisco’s defense ends will clearly be on Aldon’s side. Even if he does break free for a sack or two they won’t count towards this bet so you’ve really got to hope he catches Ray Rice running or on screen passes an awful lot.
I just don’t see it happening. If you take away his sacks, he only got to 4 or more tackles five times this season. Even then, most of those games he finished with only 4, so it’s not like he is a dominating force if you take away his pass-rushing ability.
Take the +120 on the under.
Colin Kaepernick – Total completions: Over 17.5 (+100) vs. Under 17.5 (-120)
Kaepernick has been the talk of the 49ers ever since he became the starter and it has been his playmaking ability that got San Francisco to this point. But he is still refining his passing game and that only comes with time.
Since he became the full-time starter he has only topped 17.5 completions three times. One of those was their Week 16 (42-13) blowout loss in Seattle when San Fran got behind early on and had to basically abandon their running game. Kaepernick attempted 36 passes that day (his most all season) and completed 19 of them.
Another one of those games was the 16-13 OT loss to the Rams where he went 21-for-32 passing. Kaepernick had still gone over 17.5 without the extra frame – he completed 3 passes in OT – but it was still right on the number with 18. Defensively, the Rams are quite similar to Baltimore in terms of bringing pressure and being physical with wide receivers making getting over this number tough.
Even in this stadium against the sieve-like New Orleans pass defense, Kaepernick only went 16-25 passing in the 31-21 win. In the playoffs he has finished with 17 and 16 completions respectively, but Green Bay and Atlanta’s defenses aren’t quite on the level that this Baltimore team is.
Take under 17.5