Tuesday's Hoop Action
February 5, 2013
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College basketball takes center stage in the betting world tonight as there are two huge games going on that could drastically affect the Top 25. The first has newly-minted No. 2 Florida heading on the road as double-digit favorites to play Arkansas, while No. 10 Ohio State is in the “Big House” to take on No. 3 Michigan.
Here is a breakdown of both contests.
Florida (-12) vs. Arkansas; Total set at 139.5
The Gators take their 18-2 straight up record on the road tonight where they are 6-1 SU this season. They are 5-0 both SU and ATS in the last five meetings with Arkansas and have won eight of the past 10 outright. Florida has been obliterating teams of late, winning each of their last 10 by double digits so it is no surprise to see them laying that kind of chalk tonight. In fact, they are 8-2 ATS in those last 10 games and all 10 of them have had them listed as double-digit favorites.
The Gators simply put so much pressure on their opposition with their swarming defense and relentless outside shooting that it’s so demoralizing to even attempt a comeback on Florida. They look to bury you as early as possible and tonight won’t be any different.
Arkansas has been better this season than in recent years and they are 11-1 SU at home. That lone loss came to Syracuse way back when and it’s not like they haven’t faced top-quality competition already this year (Michigan, Wisconsin). But they might be a bit out of their league again tonight (2-9 ATS in last 11 vs. team winning 60% of games or better) and will need to relentlessly fill up the bucket in order to have a chance. The Razorbacks have topped 70 in each of their past three home games and have done so in all but one of their 12 home games.
Florida won’t mind this game turning into a shooting competition one bit, so expect this game to have plenty of points with both teams likely finishing with 70 or more. The 139-point total should be surpassed in this one.
Ohio State vs. Michigan (-7.5); Total set at 132
Points may be a little harder to come by in this Big 10 matchup, especially with Michigan looking to tighten up things defensively after the weekend.
The Wolverines fell 81-73 in Indiana on Saturday, allowing 70 or more against for only the fourth time this year. The loss knocked them from the No. 1 overall ranking and they can’t let that hinder their performance tonight. This is a rematch with the Buckeyes after Ohio State gave Michigan their first loss of the year on Jan. 13. That game finished 56-53 as Ohio State jumped out to a 34-22 halftime lead and was able to hold on in the second-half. They held the Wolverines to 38% shooting from the field and will need a similar performance defensively tonight if they want a chance at the win.
Michigan won’t mind a low-scoring game because they simply can’t let teams get whatever they want like Indiana did. It’s not like they didn’t play well defensively in only allowing 56 points last time and with a 7-3 ATS mark in the last 10 vs. Ohio State, they could easily run away with this in the second-half and sit on the ball.
Michigan is 3-8 O/U in their last 11 against a winning road team and 2-5 O/U in their last seven overall. Combine those numbers with the fact that Ohio State is 0-6 O/U in their last six and 1-6 O/U in their last seven on the road and we should see another defensive battle in this one.
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