Pacers host Nets
February 11, 2013
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NBA Monday Night Preview
Brooklyn vs. Indiana (-8.5)
Total set at 183
The Nets and Pacers meet for the second time this year and it's the Pacers who would like to even up the season series after losing 97-86 in the first meeting.
That game was in Brooklyn though and the Pacers are quite a different team at home. They just had their 15-game home winning streak snapped on Friday night with an OT loss to the Raptors and will want to get back to their winning ways here tonight. That was a tough spot for Indiana as they had just finished a stretch of three games in three nights prior to having a single day off before that Raptors game. That fatigue showed in the 4th quarter with Indiana blowing an 8-point lead to see the game go to OT, but they've had the weekend off to recover and the home team is a perfect 4-0 SU in the last four between these two.
But Brooklyn has gone 4-0 ATS in those contests and 8.5 points is an awful lot to lay against a 29-22 SU Brooklyn team that is definitely pissed off with how they played in the 2nd half against the Spurs last night. That's why I'm looking at the total here and believe it's the much better betting option.
In terms of points allowed these two teams rank 2nd (Indiana) and 5th (Brooklyn) respectively and we should see those defenses step up tonight. Neither of these teams like to or want to push the pace and we should see plenty of shot-clock draining half-court possessions tonight. They finished with exactly 183 points last time but with Indiana's defense being nearly two points better than their yearly average at home (88.7 points allowed per home game) I expect their defense to play much better. Remember, the Pacers come into this game after having two days off and get to face a Brooklyn team that could face 2nd half fatigue themselves after playing last night.
Brooklyn has gone 9-23-2 O/U in their last 34 road games and is 2-5 O/U in their last seven overall. With Brook Lopez ready to battle Roy Hibbert in the paint all night for rebounds and second chance points, those two big men will lead the way as both defenses will show their teeth tonight. I have a tough time seeing either team reach 90 points as this game should finish well below tonight's number of 183.
Bet the Under here.
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