March 5, 2013
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CBB Preview: Boise State vs. UNLV (-7.5)
At 22-7 SU this year it's rare for UNLV to have many revenge opportunities but that is exactly how they will finish out the year with their final two games. Both games are at home for the Runnin' Rebels and it begins with a rematch against the 20-8 Boise State Broncos tonight.
Boise State won the first meeting 77-72 as 3-point home underdogs as they snapped a losing streak themselves at the time and have since gone on to win five of their last seven. They are 6-1 ATS since beating UNLV with the lone ATS loss coming as 9-point dogs at New Mexico. That was a similar spot to what Boise faces tonight and they've got to be feeling confident having won their last four games by 9 or more.
But many of those wins were at home and Boise State is a different team away from their own building. Seven of their eight losses this year have come on the road and they are just 2-5 SU in conference road games this year. In those five losses they have lost by an average of 11.6 points per game and gone 1-4 ATS. They have been playing better but this is also the first time they have to go on the road to play a team looking to get back at them and that isn't a scenario that is to profitable for bettors.
UNLV is coming off two straight double digit road wins as small favorites and have got to be flying high knowing they can finish up the year with two great wins at home. They are currently tied with Colorado State for 2nd in the Mountain West and that seeding is very important come conference tournament time next week. They are one game ahead of Boise State at the moment and a loss tonight would basically eliminate UNLV's chances from getting that #2 spot and avoiding a team like #1 New Mexico until the finals.
The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five between these two and although UNLV did lose the first meeting, they still shot 50% from the field in that loss. UNLV was able to get any shot they wanted in that game and just have to focus on getting stops at their own end. Boise State shot 49% from the field in their own right that night, but they score significantly less away from home. In fact, only once in their past five road games has Boise scored more than 62 points and three of those games they failed to top the 60-point mark.
Lay the points with UNLV tonight.