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When will Miami fall?
March 9, 2013
By CarbonSports
The Miami Heat are the talk of the NBA these days with their current 17-game winning streak seemingly never going to end. They got a huge scare from Orlando last night but managed to pull out it in the final seconds with a LeBron layup. The L.A. Clippers have the season's longest winning streak this year at 17-games and Miami tied that streak on Friday after beating Philadelphia at home. But when will it end? Carbon Sports has put out odds on when they think it will end and there are plenty of options out there.
Miami's streak began after a 102-89 loss in Indiana on February 1st so it's no surprise to see their game against the Pacers on March 10th listed as the favorite for when the streak would be halted. At +300 a loss there would tie the Clippers run at 17-games and I can't see the Heat wanting it to end there. Yet, they are 0-2 SU against the Pacers already this season and they do not want to fall to 0-3 against them and give them that mental edge should they meet in the playoffs.
If you look back during the streak it hasn't been the top tier NBA teams that have given Miami trouble. They have beaten the Clippers, OKC, Chicago, Memphis, Atlanta, and Houston (all currently in the playoffs) and have gone 5-2 ATS in the process. Rather it's been the bottom-feeder teams that have given the Heat the most problems during this run because their simply is no motivation for Miami to go out and romp. We all saw how close they were to losing against lowly Orlando last night but they have beaten Charlotte by 5, Cleveland by 4 and needed double OT to dispatch Sacramento. With a few of those weaker teams coming up on the schedule, bettors may be wise to look to them first.
The longest winning streak in the modern day NBA was 22 games by the Houston Rockets in 2007-08. If the Heat were to make it that long, their 23rd game would be at Boston to play a Celtics team that would absolutely LOVE to end this run. That game is listed at +600 right now and in my opinion is the front-runner at the moment.
A potential slip up spot for the Heat before that is at Philadelphia next Wednesday (+800) as you've got to believe the Sixers would be in a revenge spot there pending the beating they receive tomorrow night. That game is also the 2nd in as many nights for Miami as they host a talented Atlanta (+1000) team the night before.
I think Miami will beat Indiana streak intact or not, and after that Boston Game there is a stretch of bottom feeders that could lull Miami to sleep. They play at Cleveland (+1200), host Detroit (+2000) and Charlotte (+5000) before going to Orlando (+2000) for another game with the Magic. That is a stretch that Miami could get caught sleepwalking as it has been these weaker teams that have given them the most trouble this entire time.
Finally, if Miami can get through the rest of March unscathed, they have a date at San Antonio (+5000) with the Spurs. I don't believe it will get this far, but if it does, look for the Spurs to end the insanity.
As far as picks go, it's tough not to like the games at Boston (+600) and at Cleveland (+1200) the next time out. That Cleveland game would be the first one following Miami setting the modern day record (if they got this far) and Cleveland has shown they have more than enough talent to give Miami all they can handle.
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