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Monday's NBA Picks

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NBA Monday Double-Header

The NBA schedule has reached its final week as everyone in the league has two or less games left on their card. Only one playoff spot has yet to be decided (8th in West) but there are still some big battles for seeding positions in some cases. Memphis one of those teams as they could theoretically catch Denver for the 3rd seed with a strong finish and their game in Dallas tonight is where we start.

Memphis (-3.5) vs. Dallas (+3.5); Total set at 186

It took a few months since they started growing out their beards in a show of unity, but the Dallas Mavericks finally got to .500 yesterday. It’s a case of two little too late though as they are 3.5-games out of the chase for 8th and will be relegated to another long summer watching the playoffs. But that doesn’t mean that these guys wouldn’t love to finish the year with a winning record and a win tonight would assure them of at least finishing .500.

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Memphis has taken two of three in this series this year and the home team has won outright in all three contests. However, Dallas is 3-0 ATS in those games this year and all three have cashed tickets for ‘under’ bettors. Dallas has been a fast-paced team all year that likes to run up the score, but they’ve had moderate success playing the Grizzlies in that slow, grinding style that Memphis needs to play. The Grizzlies haven’t let an opponent score 95 or more on them in nine straight games, so Dallas will have to bring their lunchboxes to work and try to grind out the W.

Given that the Mavs have won four of five heading into tonight I think they find a way to get it done. This is not a young team that is looking ahead to a long summer off. Dallas is loaded with prideful veterans that want to finish the year with a winning record and are 7-0 ATS in their last seven back-to-back opportunities.
Take Dallas

San Antonio (+3.5) vs. Golden State (-3.5); Total set at 199.5

The Spurs have two games left and trail OKC by one for 1st in the West which creates an interesting situation for bettors tonight. The Thunder host Sacramento as huge (-15.5) favorites and would clinch 1st spot with a win in that game. Either way the Spurs would know what the result (or likely result) is by the time they tip-off at 10:30 EST and that means that we could see a lot of their stars staying in street clothes for this one.

San Antonio has always emphasized health over the standings and tonight won’t be any different. Mathematically they are still alive but they understand they are likely locked in the 2-seed and there isn’t any reason to push the envelope.

The Warriors are in a tie with Houston in those 6/7 spots but the Rockets hold the tie-breaker and as it sits right now, Golden State would have to play San Antonio in the first round. That isn’t an ideal situation for the Warriors and a win tonight could be enough to see them finish 6th.

But this play is more a fade of the Spurs here than anything. You’ve got to assume that OKC will easily win vs. Sacramento tonight and that leaves zero incentive for San Antonio to do nothing other than show up and collect their game checks.

Lay the points with Golden State.

  
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