Wednesday MLB Picks
June 5, 2013
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It's getaway day in the MLB today and although there are six games going this afternoon, there are still plenty of good money making opportunities tonight. Here are two games I'll have on my card:
Texas (+113) vs. Boston (-123); Total set at 9
Pitchers: Alexi Ogando vs. John Lackey
Texas was embarrassed in the series opener last night and there is really no other way to put it. Boston won 17-5 last night and after they built an 8-0 lead after the 2nd inning this game was basically over. There was no coming back from a deficit like that, but baseball is a sport that allows players to get right back at it the next day and you better believe the Rangers will be out for blood tonight. No professional athlete likes to be embarrassed like that and a day after Boston set their season high with 17 runs, I'm expecting the Rangers to come out swinging some hot bats themselves tonight.
Texas swept the Red Sox back in Arlington at the beginning of May and that three-game set included an Ogando vs. Lackey game too. Texas won 5-1 that day, sending Lackey to the showers after five innings of work after building a 3-1 lead. They aren't at home this time nor do they have "Lackey-killer" Ian Kinsler available, but I do think they will get a similar result tonight.
Texas is 10-4 SU in their last 14 at Fenway and they are 9-3 SU in Ogando's last 12 starts. It is rare for them to lose two straight this year and Ogando's arm is nice and fresh after a minor stint on the DL. Boston never has tremendous confidence when Lackey is on the hill as he's slowly building himself back up after Tommy John surgery a year ago and Boston's 2-5 SU record in his last seven starts proves that.
Getting embarrassed can motivation ball players in many different ways and the Rangers won't let this opportunity pass them by.
Look for Texas to get the job done.
San Diego (+180) vs. L.A. Dodgers (-210); Total set at 6.5
Pitchers: Jason Marquis vs. Clayton Kershaw
Speaking of scoring outbursts, the Dodgers and Padres had a shootout themselves last night in the 9-7 Dodgers win. This was on the heels of a 2-1 Dodgers win on Monday and the series finale tonight should play out more like Game 1 than Game 2.
L.A. has their ace Clayton Kershaw on the hill tonight and although he has given up a few runs in his last two outings he's always had tremendous success against the Padres. His last two starts against the Padres may tell a different story (0-2 SU) but prior to that he had won six in a row against San Diego and I expect him to return to that form tonight. However, those recent losses have to make you tentative on laying the -210 odds with L.A. looking for the sweep which makes the total a better option here.
These two teams exploded for 16 runs last night and I don't see that happening again tonight with these two starters. San Diego is 3-7 O/U after scoring 5 or more runs and they are 1-7 O/U when playing a team that allowed 5 runs or more last time out.
Meanwhile, L.A is 2-6 O/U when Kershaw has had only four days off and they are 5-13 O/U in his last 18 starts against division rivals. Add in the fact that L.A. is 2-6 O/U in Kershaw's last eight at home, sport the same O/U record when he's at home and the total is 6.5 or lower and 1-4 O/U in their last five against a losing team, runs should be hard to come by tonight.
Take the under.