Belmont Stakes Preview
June 7, 2013
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The final leg of the 2013 Triple Crown will be run on Saturday evening and with no potential Triple Crown winner, bettors are scouring over racing forms to determine who will win the Belmont.
Kentucky Derby winner Orb (+300) is the favorite while Preakness winner Oxbow (+600) is listed 3rd behind Revolutionary (+450). The Belmont Stakes is the longest of the three races so endurance, closing speed and knowing when to close are more important than ever in this race.
Odds to win the Belmont Stakes
Other than the favorites there are a few horses that have really caught my eye to win this race and they are all Todd Pletchertrained. Many believe that Pletcher’s best chance to win his second career Belmont Stakes is with Revolutionary (+450), but I’ve been tracking Overanalyze, (+1500) Palace Malice, (+800) and Unlimited Budget (+800). The latter two are right behind Oxbow in the odds (4th) and any one of the three would make history if they were to win.
Unlimited Budget (+800) is the only filly in the event and jockey Rosie Napravnik would be the first all-female duo to win any one of the Triple Crown races. This horse is fast down the stretch and the distance shouldn’t bother it as long as it remains close throughout.
Palace Malice (+800) is a horse that gets another shot at a Triple Crown race after finishing 12th in the Kentucky Derby with Mike E. Smith on its back. Smith will get a second go-around with the horse at the Belmont and given that he won this race in 2010 with “Drosselmeyer” he knows how to maneuver a horse at this distance.
Finally, there is Overanalyze (+1500). With last year’s winner John Velazquez as the jockey this horse can’t be overlooked. In the past four years at this race Velazquez has come 1st, 2nd, 2nd, and 6th at the Belmont and he was responsible for bringingPletcher his only win at the Belmont on “Rags to Riches” in 2007. Velazquez is a jockey that loves to race at this track and after coming 2nd in the Preakness on “Itsmyluckyday,” Velazquez will do everything he can to cross the finish line first. Oh, and the past two winners of the Belmont have both come from the #3 post.
Belmont Stakes Props
Aside from just picking the winner there are also two prop bets I really like for the Belmont Stakes although both are a bit “chalky.”
1: What will the winning saddlecloth number be? Odd (-220) or Even (+170)
This is one bet where you have to take the Odd (-220) without blinking. By taking the odd numbers here you are basically taking all the favorites. Orb (+300) is #3, Revolutionary (+450)is #9, Oxbow (+600) is #7 Unlimited Budget (+800) is #13 and Overanalyze (+1500) is #3.
Yes, you’ve got a couple of good bets on the Even (+170) side with Palice Malice (+800), Freedom Child (+800), and Golden Soul (+1200), but an odd number has won the past three Belmont Stakes and of the nine horses who came top three in those races, only two of them wore an even saddlecloth.
2: Will a horse lead wire to wire? Yes (+500) or No (-700)
Laying the chalk on the No (-700) is the only option here as the Belmont is just too long for a horse in this field to break away start to finish. There are so many good closers in this race that the lead will change multiple times in this race and if you can stomach the chalk here, I believe it’s a winner all the way.
Take No (-700).