Monday's Diamond Picks
June 10, 2013
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With no NHL or NBA playoffs on the card tonight it’s a rather “slow” day in the betting world but it also means that baseball will get the full attention of the betting public. There are 10 games on the card and here is the one that stands out to me the most:
Toronto (-123) vs. Chicago (+113); Total set at 8.5
Pitchers: R.A. Dickey vs. Dylan Axelrod
The Jays and White Sox meet for the second time this season after they split a four-game set in Toronto in mid-April. Both Dickey and Axelrod pitched in that series and both managed to see their team win in their respective starts. Only one of them will be able to say that tonight but that is not something I’m concerning myself with tonight.
I really like this total to go over because I think runs will be scored on both sides no matter who comes out on top.
For some that may seem very odd considering all four games in that prior series cashed “under” tickets and the White Sox are one of the worst offensive teams in the majors. Chicago only scores 3.51 runs per game and they’ve only topped four runs once in their past 13 outings. Dickey got the best of them in that previous meeting in a 3-1 Toronto win and many bettors (85 %+) will be thinking tonight will be more of the same.
However, Chicago has scored at least four runs in five of their past six games and they do have guys like Konerko and Rios who have seen Dickey plenty of times in their careers (10+) and have hit him well – better than .330.
The White Sox have also managed to give Axelrod more run support than almost any other starting pitcher they have (4.1/game on year). It is because of that support, and his tendency to be erratic, that Chicago has gone 4-1-1 O/U in his last six starts overall, including a 3-0-1 O/U mark at home. This team is starting to feel it offensively and they should do much better against Dickey this time around. Dickey may have been good last time out in a 4-0 win at San Francisco, but his ERA is still 4.66 on the season and over 5.00 his last three outings.
Toronto’s offense can always be counted on to score 4+ in any game and have done so in five of their last six as well. They were missing Jose Bautista when they faced Axelrod last time and his offense is just too important to this lineup.
The Jays are also 10-2 O/U in their last 12 as favorites and that includes a 4-0 O/U mark in Dickey’s last four laying chalk. In fact, Toronto is 6-1 O/U in Dickey’s last seven starts overall and has no problem giving him plenty of run support either (4/game last three).
Take the over.