NBA Draft Props
June 26, 2013
2013 NBA Draft Prop Betting (6/27/13)
With the Miami Heat successfully defending their title, the NBA news cycle moves towards the draft right now. So with six months to wait before any NBA game action can get down, it’s the draft that’s got bettors attention right now and here are a couple of props I’m on.
Trey Burke Draft Position: Over 7.5 (-120) or Under 7.5 (-120)
Burke made a lot of noise this March with Michigan’s run to the championship game but there are still a few questions about his ability to transition to the pro game.
His size is the biggest concern as a point guard because if he can’t adapt to guys just as tall and quick guarding him at the PG position, it will be a long time before his stock pays off he goes in the first seven picks. There aren`t too many teams that have a strong need at the position in the first seven picks either. Orlando (#2), Phoenix (#5) and Sacramento (#7) all have needs at the position but all three of those teams will likely look elsewhere to fill the hole. Of those three, Sacramento is the most likely to take Burke but given that they are right on the number and still have plenty of young guards in the mix, I’m willing to bet they pass and look at another guard or another position.
Take the over.
Who will get drafted first? Otto Porter (-180) or Ben McLemore (+140)
These two prospects should have very good NBA careers but what most teams will do this high in the draft is take the player that is more NBA-ready.
Without a doubt that is Porter, as he’s had more seasoning at the college level and is a much better leader on the floor. He may lack the pure scoring ability and ultra-high ceiling that McLemore has but he isn’t too far behind and could develop into a prolific scorer himself. However, there are two things that separate Porter from McLemore in this bet and that is their ability on defense and position.
Other than Orlando, there aren’t too many teams right at the top looking for immediate help at the SG position (McLemore), and while he could go #2 overall, he didn’t impress anyone in Orlando with his workouts. The Magic are in need of a few pieces before they become a contender again but they can’t waste this high of a pick on a guy that will be a liability defensively when there are better all-around players at the position (Oladipo) still on the board.
As a SF, Porter as a few different options early on (Washington #3, Charlotte #4) and is considered the better player than McLemore at the moment. Both are coming from historically strong programs in Georgetown and Kansas, but that extra year in the Hoyas system could make all the difference in the world for Porter here.
The juice is steep but you’ve got to remember it’s like that for a reason too.
Take Porter (-180).
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