Tuesday MLB Plays
July 2, 2013
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L.A. Dodgers (-160) vs. Colorado (+145); Total set at 9
Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw vs. Roy Oswalt
The Dodgers are on a roll right now as winners in eight of their past nine contests and holding opponents to two runs or less five times in that span. When a team is getting quality pitching like that from their starters and bullpen wins will pile up and thankfully for Dodgers fans the wins are coming at a great time.
L.A. still might be “last” in the NL West, but they are only 3.5 games out of first place and can make up some of that ground with a good series against Colorado this week. If L.A. could manage to take at least two of three from the Rockies, L.A. would potentially leapfrog San Francisco and be mere steps away from getting back to .500. With Kershaw on the hill for Game 1 Dodgers fans have got to like their early chances in this series.
However, pitching in Colorado has always been one of the tougher spots for Kershaw in his career as he’s only 1-3 SU in his last four starts here. That lone win did come earlier this year in a 7-5 victory but bettors can see that a 7-5 score with Kershaw on the hill is quite rare in itself. That is one of the many reasons I believe the best play is on the underdog Rockies tonight as Colorado hopes to win Game 1 of this series and claim a series win over the next two days.
L.A. is 0-6 SU in their last seven games after a day off and they are 2-7 SU in Kershaw’s last nine starts against a division rival. The Dodgers have also won only four times in their last 14 games at Coors Field and the Rockies have been a better team against southpaws this year. This line has moved in Colorado’s favor since opening, despite the majority (90%+) backing Kershaw, meaning the Rockies are a very live dog tonight.
Take Colorado on the ML.
St. Louis (+120) vs. L.A. Angels (-130); Total set at 8
Pitchers: Lance Lynn vs. Jered Weaver
This late game on the card is one of those between a team that has won six straight and in a groove (L.A) against a floundering 1st place team (Stl) that is just trying to get to the All-Star break.
The Cardinals have lost six of eight coming into tonight and haven’t exactly gotten consistent pitching in that span. Lynn has been good for them all year but he’s also never really faced a lineup that’s loaded 1-9 like the Angels have. Lynn does get some very good run support from his teammates though 6.6/game) and he might need all of those to come away with a win tonight.
L.A. is desperately trying to rebound from another horrible start and is glad to be back at home after sweeping Detroit and Houston. A hard-throwing, fastball-heavy pitcher like Lynn is right in the Angels wheelhouse and they shouldn’t hesitate to jump all over him early and often.
Whether it’s enough for their 7th straight victory is another question though as Weaver hasn’t been the dominant pitcher he has been in years past.
However, L.A. is 10-1 O/U in their last 11 against a team that wins more than 60% of their games and they are 7-1 SU after a day off. L.A. isn’t exactly a team loaded with youth so that 24 hours of rest appears to work wonders for those older guys in the lineup. St Louis is 6-2 O/U with Lynn as a road dog and they’ve hit right-handers hard on the road of late, going 5-1 O/U in their last six.
A total of 8 looks to be a little low for these two teams because it’s based on what these pitchers have done in the past, not their current form. There is a strong chance we see that number surpassed by the 7th inning or so, making a bet on the total the best option here.
Take the over.