UFC 162 Winners
July 5, 2013
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UFC 162 Free Picks – Breaking Down the Silva vs. Weidman Card
The middleweight championship will be on the line this Saturday at the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas when Anderson Silva wages war with Chris Weidman in the main event. I’ve got five UFC 162 free picks here, including two battles in the preliminaries. Get your bets in early and have a great weekend.
Anderson Silva -255 over Chris Weidman +195
This is by far the tightest line that Anderson Silva has faced since becoming champion, and it’s one where you can finally back him comfortably without fronting a huge amount of risk to reap the rewards of his hard work. I have written ad nauseum about Silva’s greatness, and I don’t feel like repeating myself. You know how incredible his title run is. A reign of 2,454 days (and counting) speaks for itself, especially in the most competitive era in UFC history.
That being said, I’m a big fan of Chris Weidman’s body of work. I’m just not a big enough fan to believe he can overcome The Spider. At 9-0 SU in his professional career, Weidman is being thrown to the wolves to give Silva some competition and he stacks up pretty well. Weidman will give Silva a great fight, and he won’t be scared to strike with him since he’s one of the few competitors in this division that matches up with him in height, weight and reach.
Betting against the current middleweight champion is pointless, however, which is why my UFC 162 free picks lean towards the guy with the belt. I think Weidman has a solid chance in this fight, but we’ve heard that before. Expect more greatness from the greatest fighter ever.
And yes, I would love a trilogy with these two.
Frankie Edgar -600 over Charles Oliveira +400
These are hard odds to swallow, but the fact that Edgar is fighting in a blistering three-rounder for the first time in a long while gives him a decisive advantage. Edgar’s last seven fights have all been five-round title fights so the edge goes to him despite how highly I regard Oliveira, who is coming off a recent loss to Cub Swanson. Who’s Cub Swanson, you ask? Exactly.
Roger Gracie +115 over Tim Kennedy
Dana White and the brass at UFC expect big things out of middleweight contender Roger Gracie, who stands at an impressive 6-foot-4 with a 79-inch reach. The reason he’s an underdog in this fight is because he’s never fought in the UFC before, and Tim Kennedy is a rough customer. This has a chance to be the show stealer of the undercard.
Kennedy is a well loved and respected fighter who also serves in the US Military full time. He gives up a lot of advantages in this fight, and Kennedy is known to take things to the ground which would be a mistake against Gracie. Unfortunately, Kennedy doesn’t have any other tricks in his bag. He hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2007.
If this becomes a technical bout on the ground, it’s Gracie’s fight to lose. He’s longer, stronger and more versatile on the ground and his lineage is the stuff of legend. Gracie should make a triumphant debut in the UFC by using Kennedy as a welcome mat to the big leagues.
UFC 162 PRELIM FREE PICK
Two fairly well known names are on the preliminary card of UFC 162 on Saturday night and are posting some curious odds. If you’re not going to shell out for the pay-per-view, you should enjoy these free fights that you can watch before the main card kicks off.
Chris Leben +110 over Andrew Craig -140
I can’t resist betting on Leben so you might want to air with caution here. He’s 1-3 SU in his last 4 fights but he is the atypical “guy with his back against the wall”. Every time Leben is counted out as a fighter, he rallies back and shocks the world. It’s just in his nature, and has been something we love to hate about him.
Andrew Craig is an interesting talent, but he’s also not exactly making anyone salivate. He’s 8-1 SU and coming off a loss to Rony Markes in January. The key here is the odds: Leben is washed up by all accounts and Craig should be an up and comer. If that’s the case, why aren’t Craig’s odds higher?
Dave Herman +190 over Gabriel Gonzaga -250
Poor Dave Herman. He’s lost three straight fights to drop to 21-5 SU in his professional career, and is returning to the UFC after testing positive for smoking marijuana. His last three fights included losses to Nogueira, Nelson and Struve so there’s no real shame in that. But he’s posting a great underdog number here and I still believe he has some bit left in him. He is, after all, just 28 years old.
Gonzaga’s brain is probably mush at this point. He is getting knocked out fairly often, and Herman won’t let him take this fight down to the canvas. Gonzaga is still a fan favorite but he doesn’t have much left in him. This should be a fun fight to say the least, but Herman will get back on the horse with a win against Gonzaga and I smell some easy money here for the underdog in my UFC 162 free picks.